The Cyclical Sine Model Explanation for Climate Change

Climate Change due to excessive buildup of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere from hydrocarbon combustion is one explanation (NASA greenhouse effect) for the Earth’s temperature increase since 1850. If this is true, then eliminating fossil fuel use is the only way to preserve our planet. However, there is another explanation for Global Warming/Climate Change that leads to the opposite conclusion – hydrocarbon energy will be needed well into the future to cope with future, excessively hot and cold temperature cycles. This paper will show that the Global Warming/Climate Change underway on Earth today is a totally natural occurrence with solid scientific and historical support. The Earth is currently in the upswing part of its normal temperature cycle. Very warm (Medieval Warming) and very cold (Little Ice Age) cycles have been historically documented on Earth for at least the last 3,000 years. This cyclicity has a repeated period of about every 1,500 years (Singer 2008). This explanation for the Earth’s temperature increases since 1850 is captured in a mathematical model called the Cyclical Sine Model. This model fits past climate cycles, measured temperatures since 1850, and correlates closely with the cyclicity of Bond Atlantic Drift Ice Cycles (Bond 1997), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (NASA AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (NASA PDO). This model also quantitively explains the time span 1945-1975 when an impending ice age was feared (Time Magazine 1974). The Cyclical Sine Model is the best explanation for the Earth’s recent temperature increases.