革命的经济起源:GDP与革命事件风险之间的联系

IF 2.9 1区 哲学 Q1 ETHICS Journal of Political Philosophy Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI:10.30570/2078-5089-2023-108-1-64-87
V. Ustyuzhanin, V. A. Mikheeva, I. A. Sumernikov, Andrey Korotayev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,有许多研究分析了不同因素对革命事件发生概率的影响。与此同时,一组重要的现代化变量(GDP、城市化、教育、民主化)仍未得到充分研究。此外,当代定量研究的结果表明,财富(通过人均GDP运作)如何影响革命事件的风险存在显著差异。因此,学者们通常把这些事件放在一起考虑,而不把它们分为武装叛乱和非武装叛乱。本文试图揭示财富对革命不稳定性的影响,同时考虑到其武装和非武装版本的显著特征。在对1900-2019年期间的425次不同类型的革命事件进行分析的基础上,作者发现武装革命与人均GDP水平之间存在很强的线性负相关关系,而非武装革命与财富之间的关系具有曲线性质。起初,随着人均GDP的增加,非武装革命的风险增加,但在达到一定阈值后,它们开始下降。当非武装革命不稳定的风险最大时,拐点对应于目前面临中等收入陷阱的中等收入国家的人均国内生产总值水平。换句话说,他们的财富停滞在最可能导致非武装革命爆发的水平上。根据作者的结论,除了与中等收入陷阱相关的明显经济问题外,后者还导致非武装革命不稳定的可能性增加。
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Economic Origins of Revolutions: the Link between GDP and the Risk of Revolutionary Events
The recent years have witnessed numerous studies that analyze the influence of different factors on the probability of revolutionary events. At the same time, an important set of modernization variables (GDP, urbanization, education, democratization) still remains understudied. Moreover, the results of the contemporary quantitative studies show significant discrepancies in how wealth (operationalized through GDP per capita) affects the risks of revolutionary events. Herewith scholars usually consider such events in the aggregate, without dividing them into armed and non-armed rebellions. This paper attempts to shed light on the impact of wealth on revolutionary instability, taking into account the distinguishing features of its armed and non-armed versions. On the basis of the analysis of 425 revolutionary episodes of various types over the period of 1900—2019, the authors document a strong linear negative relationship between armed revolutions and the level of GDP per capita, while the relationship between unarmed revolutions and wealth has a curvilinear nature. At first, as GDP per capita increases, the risks of unarmed revolutions increase, but after reaching a certain threshold they begin to fall. The inflection point, when the risk of unarmed revolutionary instability is the greatest, corresponds to the level of GDP per capita in the middle-income countries, which currently face the middle-income trap. In other words, their wealth stagnates at the level that is most risky for the emergence of unarmed revolutions. According to the authors’ conclusion, in addition to the obvious economic problems associated with the middle-income trap, the latter also leads to the increased probability of unarmed revolutionary instability.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
5.60%
发文量
17
期刊介绍: The Journal of Political Philosophy is an international journal devoted to the study of theoretical issues arising out of moral, legal and political life. It welcomes, and hopes to foster, work cutting across a variety of disciplinary concerns, among them philosophy, sociology, history, economics and political science. The journal encourages new approaches, including (but not limited to): feminism; environmentalism; critical theory, post-modernism and analytical Marxism; social and public choice theory; law and economics, critical legal studies and critical race studies; and game theoretic, socio-biological and anthropological approaches to politics. It also welcomes work in the history of political thought which builds to a larger philosophical point and work in the philosophy of the social sciences and applied ethics with broader political implications. Featuring a distinguished editorial board from major centres of thought from around the globe, the journal draws equally upon the work of non-philosophers and philosophers and provides a forum of debate between disparate factions who usually keep to their own separate journals.
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