21世纪的人口问题与政策与20世纪有何不同

J. Goldstone, J. May
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摘要

人口问题和人口政策在20世纪和21世纪之间发生了很大的变化。在1970年代,大多数国家都面临人口迅速增长的问题,这种情况在亚洲尤其严重。相反,今天世界上一半以上的人口正经历低生育率和人口老龄化,一些生育率极低的国家正面临人口减少的前景。只有一个区域,即撒哈拉以南非洲,生育率仍然很高。同样,关于是否以及如何干预人口趋势的讨论也在过去70年中不断发展。在20世纪下半叶,以人口为重点的计划生育方法是主流观点。但是,自从1994年在开罗举行国际人口与发展会议(人发会议)以来,国际人口政策范例已重新拟订,以强调夫妇的自由和个人的生育权利。因此,政策干预倾向于以客户为中心和对性别问题敏感的办法。最后,为了帮助规划未来的道路,人口政策将需要考虑几个关键因素,将重点从支持计划生育扩大到包括卫生、教育和文化在内的一系列政策工具,所有这些都将影响未来的人口。这一新的政策框架包括确定干预措施的优先次序、建立政策共识、选择优先选区、政策的制度化和供资,以及促进循证和研究驱动的政策。此外,为了使它们的干预措施适应当地情况,人口政策必须是整体的,促进综合干预措施,并与国际发展框架保持一致。
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How 21st Century Population Issues and Policies Differ from Those of the 20th Century
Population issues and population policies have evolved considerably between the 20th and the 21st centuries. In the 1970s, most countries confronted rapid population growth, and this situation was particularly severe in Asia. Today, on the contrary, more than half of the world population is experiencing low fertility and population aging, and several countries with very low fertility are facing the prospect of depopulation. Only one region, i.e., sub-Saharan Africa, still experiences high fertility levels. Similarly, the discussions about whether and how to intervene on population trends have also evolved over the past 70 years. Demographically focused approaches to family planning provision were dominant views in the second half of the 20th century. However, since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, international population policy paradigms have been reframed to stress the freedom of couples and the reproductive rights of individuals. Consequently, policy interventions have favored client-focused and gender-sensitive approaches. Finally, to help chart the way forward, population policies will need to consider several key elements, broadening from a focus on support for family planning to an array of policy instruments including health, education, and culture, all of which shape future populations. This new policy framework includes the prioritization of interventions, policy consensus building, the selection of priority constituencies, the institutionalization and funding of policies, and the promotion of evidence-based and research-driven policies. In addition, in order to adapt their interventions to local contexts, population policies will need to be holistic, to promote integrated interventions, and to align with international development frameworks.
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