东亚共同体内的货币政策趋同:以利率和汇率为焦点

Michael Oloo, M. Mbithi, D. Abala
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摘要

本研究旨在确定货币政策传导机制的关键变量是否在东非共同体内趋同。该地区正在考虑建立一个经济联盟,随后是一个货币联盟,因此在货币部门投资发展的重要性。该分析使用了五个EACs 2005年至2020年的面板数据。为了检验利率和汇率的收敛性,分析采用;单位根检验、西格玛收敛、协整检验,最后运用面板固定效应模型建立两个变量对GDP的影响。分析表明,在短期内,利率不存在趋同,但汇率存在趋同。然而,从长期来看,这两个货币政策变量是协整的,这表明该地区在准备形成共同贸易区和货币联盟的过程中,在金融部门的一体化方面做得很好。分析这两个变量对经济增长的影响可以看出,只有汇率对经济增长的影响是显著的,因此,该地区应努力培育稳定的汇率制度,以实现经济的快速增长。
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Monetary Policy Convergence within the EAC: A Focus on Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
This study was conducted to establish whether the key variables in monetary policy transmission mechanisms are converging within the East African Community. This region is eyeing having an economic union and subsequently a monetary union hence the significance of investing developments in the monetary sector. The analysis used panel data from the year 2005 to 2020 for five EACs. To test for convergence of interest rates and exchange rates, the analysis employed; unit-root test, sigma convergence, co-integration tests, and finally used the panel fixed effect model to establish the impact of the two variables on the GDP. The analysis shows that in the short run, there is no convergence in interest rates but there is convergence in exchange rates. However, in the long run, the two monetary policy variables are co-integrated indicating that the region is doing well in terms of integration in the financial sector in their preparation to form a common trade area and monetary union. The analysis of the impact of the two variables on economic growth shows that only the exchange rate is significant, therefore, the region should strive to foster a stable exchange rate regime to realize increased economic growth.
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