通过分层分析程序对国防产品和敏感技术出口管制多边协定进行优先排序

L. O. Gavião, Luciano Dias Dutra, S. Kostin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一个模型来支持巴西在尚未加入的国防产品和敏感技术多边出口管制机制中选择优先加入的决策,即瓦森纳安排、澳大利亚集团和桑格委员会。对于该模型的开发,使用了层次分析法(AHP)方法,该方法被认为足以解决标准是定性的问题,并且决策往往基于个人经验。问题的层次结构使用七个标准(国家立法,监管制度,许可结构,执行能力,国际合作,粘附成本和国防工业基地的利益)来比较上述三个协议。设计问卷,选取国防相关专家进行回答,收集、标准化、处理、分析。最后,将协议按偏好排序,以支持决策,说明所提出模型的应用。
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PRIORIZAÇÃO DE ACORDOS MULTILATERAIS DE CONTROLE DE EXPORTAÇÃO DE PRODUTOS DE DEFESA E TECNOLOGIAS SENSÍVEIS POR PROCESSO DE ANÁLISE HIERÁRQUICA
This paper proposes a model to support the decision to choose which multilateral export control regime of defense products and sensitive technologies in which Brazil does not yet participate, namely, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and Zangger Committee, should be prioritized for adhesion. For the development of this model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used, considered adequate for solving problems where criteria are qualitative and decisions tend to be based on personal experiences. The hierarchical structure of the problem used seven criteria (Country Legislation, Regulatory System, Licensing Structure, Enforcement Capacity, International Cooperation, Costs of Adhesion and Benefits for the Defense Industrial Base) to compare the three mentioned agreements. A questionnaire was set up and specialists related to National Defense were selected to answer them, after which their answers were collected, standardized, processed and analyzed. At the end, the agreements were ordered by preference to support decision making, illustrating the application of the proposed model.
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来源期刊
Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy and International Relations
Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy and International Relations Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
CiteScore
0.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy and International Relations was the first Brazilian journal in the area of International Relations to be fully published in English (2012). It is an essentially academic vehicle, linked to the Brazilian Centre of Strategy & International Relations (NERINT) and the Doctoral Program in International Strategic Studies (PPGEEI) of the Faculty of Economics (FCE) of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Its pluralist focus aims to contribute to the debate on the international political and economic order from the perspective of the developing world. The journal publishes original articles in the area of Strategy and International Relations, with special interest in issues related to developing countries and South-South Cooperation – its security problems; the political, economic and diplomatic developments of emerging countries; and their relations with the traditional powers. AUSTRAL is published semi-annually in English and Portuguese. The journal’s target audience consists of researchers, experts, diplomats, military personnel and graduate students of International Relations. The content of the journal consists of in-depth analytical articles written by experts (Professors and Doctors), focusing on each of the great continents of the South: Asia, Latin America and Africa. Thus, the debate and diffusion of knowledge produced in these regions is stimulated. All contributions submitted to AUSTRAL are subject to rigorous scientific evaluation.
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