预测亚美尼亚库蚊未来生态位及相关生物风险

L. Niazyan
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摘要

西尼罗病毒病是一种新兴的传染性病媒传播疾病。在亚美尼亚已登记的入侵蚊种中,库蚊是与西尼罗病毒(WNV)潜在传播关系最密切的蚊种。在前几年(1985-1999年),流行病学研究所对亚美尼亚蚊媒虫媒病毒的传播进行了研究,在蚊子中发现了Batai、Sindbis、Tahyna和Gheta。亚美尼亚历史上唯一登记的蚊媒疾病是疟疾,自2006年以来没有本土病例。然而,根据Nork感染临床医院2016-2019年回顾性病历回顾研究,约30%的发热患者被诊断为“不明原因发热”。我们假设这些虫媒病毒在亚美尼亚流行,但大多被误诊和/或报告不足。根据蚊虫的地理位置,建立了包含19个生物气候变量的MaxEnt模型,预测了未来库蚊的生态位和西尼罗病毒病的潜在高发区。这是实施严格统计的生物风险实时警报系统的第一步。
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PREDICTING THE FUTURE ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF $CULEX$ $PIPIENS$ AND ASSOCIATED BIORISKS IN ARMENIA
West Nile virus disease is an emerging infectious vector borne disease. Of registered invasive species of mosquitoes in Armenia, Culex pipiens is the most implicated one in the potential transmission of West Nile virus (WNV). In previous years (1985–1999), research on circulation of mosquito-borne arboviruses in Armenia was conducted by the research Institute of Epidemiology and WNV, Batai, Sindbis, Tahyna and Gheta were found in mosquitoes. The only mosquito-borne disease historically registered in Armenia was malaria, without autochtonous cases since 2006. However, per retrospective medical chart review study (2016–2019) in the Nork Infection Clinical Hospital, about 30% of febrile patients is diagnosed as “Fever of Unknown Origin”. We hypothesize that these arboviruses are circulating in Armenia and largely mis-diagnosed and/or under reported. Based on the geographical locations of mosquitoes, the MaxEnt model with 19 bioclimatic variables was developed to predict future ecological niche of C. pipiens and potential high-risk areas for West Nile virus disease. It is the first step for the implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time alert of biorisk.
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