21世纪西伯利亚中部地区可能的气候影响下的针状Lophodermium分布

IF 2.3 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Web Ecology Pub Date : 2016-02-04 DOI:10.5194/WE-16-37-2016
N. Tchebakova, N. A. Kuzmina, E. Parfenova, V. Senashova, S. R. Kuzmin
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要针状铸造是由一种真菌引起的。是西伯利亚松树的常见病。1997-2010年投针事件与气候变量的回归分析表明,该疾病最依赖于连续两年的降水。在潮湿的年份,温度条件是引发该病的重要因素。我们使用我们的区域生物气候包络模型和IPCC情景来模拟21世纪的针投分布及其爆发。在气候变暖的情况下,针投范围会向北移动。到2020年,针铸的爆发将已经破坏了最大的森林地区。但到2080年,爆发区域将会减少,因为模拟病原体和疾病宿主苏格兰松的范围将会分离:宿主树的进化将被永久冻土的缓慢消退所阻止,这反过来又会阻止潜在病原体的进化。
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Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century
Abstract. Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.
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来源期刊
Web Ecology
Web Ecology Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Web Ecology (WE) is an open-access journal issued by the European Ecological Federation (EEF) representing the ecological societies within Europe and associated members. Its special value is to serve as a publication forum for national ecological societies that do not maintain their own society journal. Web Ecology publishes papers from all fields of ecology without any geographic restriction. It is a forum to communicate results of experimental, theoretical, and descriptive studies of general interest to an international audience. Original contributions, short communications, and reviews on ecological research on all kinds of organisms and ecosystems are welcome as well as papers that express emerging ideas and concepts with a sound scientific background.
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