N. Tchebakova, N. A. Kuzmina, E. Parfenova, V. Senashova, S. R. Kuzmin
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Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century
Abstract. Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.
Web EcologyAgricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍:
Web Ecology (WE) is an open-access journal issued by the European Ecological Federation (EEF) representing the ecological societies within Europe and associated members. Its special value is to serve as a publication forum for national ecological societies that do not maintain their own society journal. Web Ecology publishes papers from all fields of ecology without any geographic restriction. It is a forum to communicate results of experimental, theoretical, and descriptive studies of general interest to an international audience. Original contributions, short communications, and reviews on ecological research on all kinds of organisms and ecosystems are welcome as well as papers that express emerging ideas and concepts with a sound scientific background.