模拟全球化发展中国家面临的政策挑战

N. Karunaratne
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摘要

这篇文章模拟了全球化发展中国家面临的政策挑战。本文回顾了纯国际贸易理论模型、小型开放经济模型、增长会计、索洛-斯旺模型、重力模型、投资组合多样化模型和货币危机模型,以提炼出促进发展中国家全球化的政策指导方针。促进发展中国家全球化的首要目标是减少国家之间和国家内部的贫困和收入不平等。支持和反对全球化的人士目前陷入了一场激烈的争论,即最新一波全球化浪潮是否扭转了过去发展中国家贫困和收入不平等加剧的趋势。反全球化人士哀叹,旷日持久的全球化浪潮未能将发展中国家从使其陷入贫困恶性循环的结构性问题中解救出来。他们主张彻底重塑国际金融架构,通过减少发展中国家对经常性金融危机和危机蔓延的脆弱性,使全球化有利于发展中国家。文章最后回顾了地理学和制度学派的研究,为促进发展中国家的全球化提供了新的政策前景。
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Modelling the Policy Challenges Confronting Globalising Developing Countries
The article models the policy challenges facing globalising developing countries. Models from the pure theory of international trade, the small open economy model, growth accounting, the Solow-Swan model, the gravity model, models of portfolio diversification and currency crises models are reviewed to distil policy guidelines to promote the globalisation of developing countries. The overriding objective of promoting the globalisation of developing countries is to reduce poverty and income inequality between and within countries. Pro- and anti-globalisers are currently locked in a heated controversy as to whether the latest wave of globalisation has bucked the past trend of increasing poverty and income inequality in developing countries. Anti-globalisers lament that protracted waves of globalisation have failed to extricate developing countries from the structural malaise that traps them in a vicious circle of poverty. They advocate the radical reshaping of the international financial architecture to make globalisation work for the developing countries by reducing their vulnerability to recurrent financial crises and crisis contagion. The article concludes by reviewing the geography and institution school research that offers new policy vistas for promoting globalisation in developing countries.
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