埃塞俄比亚时空气候变化及其减缓证据

A. Reda
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引用次数: 2

摘要

国家层面的变化检测是1946年和2006年两个时间段的单向趋势分析。气温呈上升趋势,降水呈波动趋势。对埃塞俄比亚北部半干旱区Mekelle镇1980—2010年局地气候资料的点分析表明,10 ~ 1月最低气温有升高趋势,而炎热季节(4 ~ 6月)最高气温和年降雨量无显著变化趋势,且不一致。需要针对具体区域进行详细的季节性气候研究,并与当地农业、生计、预报和发展计划相结合,建立有效的预警系统,以利用气候潜力并尽量减少自然灾害。这项研究为进一步详细分析气候变化的时空格局、影响评估以及适应和减缓战略提供了一个里程碑。在过去的25年里,以当地社区为基础的大规模可持续自然资源管理工作已经开展,并且有许多成功的故事。土地管理措施是关键的适应和缓解措施,减少了水土流失,改善了保水能力,提高了土地生产力。1946 - 2006年降水总体呈下降趋势,北部地区除外。埃塞俄比亚西部和西南部潮湿地区的降雨量呈负趋势,这表明这些地区的森林覆盖一直在恶化。然而,由于在过去25年中大规模的环境恢复和将退化土地恢复为生产性土地,较干燥的埃塞俄比亚北部地区显示出积极(上升)趋势。埃塞俄比亚北部地区在环境恢复方面的公共投资使环境得到恢复,并有助于扭转气候变化的不利影响。这些作为适应和减缓全球变暖战略而采取的地方行动应得到鼓励、全球认可和奖励。
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Evidences of Spatiotemporal Climate Change and its Mitigation in Ethiopia
The change detection at country level was unidirectional trend analysis between two time periods of 1946 and 2006. Temperature shows increasing trend but rainfall shows fluctuation. Point analysis of climate data at local level (1980-2010), Mekelle town, Northern Ethiopia, one of the semi-arid areas, showed that minimum temperature for the months of October through January had an increasing trend while maximum temperature for the hot season (April- June) and annual rainfall had no significant trend and were inconsistent. Region-specific detailed and seasonal climate studies are needed and to be integrated with local context of agriculture, livelihoods, forecasts and development plans for effective Early Warning Systems to utilize climate potentials and minimize natural disasters. This study serves as a milestone for further detailed agroclimatic and sector based analysis of spatio-temporal climate change patterns, impact assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Massive sustainable local community based natural resource management efforts have been undertaken and there had been lots of success stories in the last 25 years. SLM practices constitute key adaptation and mitigation measures by resulting in reduced soil erosion, improved water retention, and improved land productivity. Rainfall generally shows declining trend with exception to Northern Region for the period of 1946 to 2006. Moist areas of Western and South Western Ethiopia are showing negative trend of rainfall which indicates that their forest covers have been deteriorating through time. However, the drier Northern Ethiopia region area shows positive (upward) trends owing to massive environmental rehabilitation and restoration of degraded lands into productive lands in the last 25 years. The public investment in Northern Ethiopia region on environmental rehabilitation has resulted in rehabilitated environment and contributed to reversing adverse effects of climate change. These local actions taken as adaptation and mitigation strategies against global warming should be encouraged, globally recognized, and rewarded.
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