基于Lasso贝叶斯模型平均法的中国同城城区房价差异形成机制

Jiayao Pan, Shaoling Ding
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摘要

随着经济的发展和城市规模的扩大,中国城市内部房价的变化逐渐变得明显。本文以成都市79个小区的房价数据为基础,分析了造成这种差异的原因。建立了定位住宅价格差异指标体系,构建了半对数线性回归Lasso贝叶斯平均模型,该模型可以在估计系数的同时实现变量选择。实证表明,区域内社会经济资源的不平等和住房供需的不平衡是导致城市内部区域间房价差异的重要内在因素;相关房价具有极显著的正向影响,说明购房地的流动性和房价的传染是影响房价的主要原因;此外,影响因素具有较强的正向交互作用。
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The Formation Mechanism of House Price Differences in China’s Urban Area in the Same City—Based on Lasso Bayesian Model Averaging Method
With the development of economy and the expansion of urban scale, the variation of housing prices within Chinese cities has gradually become significant. Based on the housing prices of 79 districts in Chengdu, this paper analyzes the reasons for such differences. With an index system of the price difference of locational housing, a semi-log linear regression Lasso Bayesian average model is constructed, which can realize variable selection while estimating coefficients. Empirical evidence shows that the inequality of social-economic resources and the imbalance of housing supply and demand in the area are important internal factors that lead to the difference in housing prices between areas within the city; the related housing prices have an extremely significant positive impact, showing that the mobility of the place of purchase and the contagion of the house price are the main reasons for housing price; in addition, influential factors have strong positive interaction effects.
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