向司机提供信息能减少交通堵塞吗?

Richard Arnott, Andre de Palma, Robin Lindsey
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引用次数: 385

摘要

本文的目的是质疑路线引导和信息系统必然减少交通拥堵的假设,并指出需要考虑信息的一般均衡效应。采用了一个简单的早高峰时间模型,在这个模型中,通勤者选择一个出发时间和两条路线中的一条去上班,这两条路线的容量是随机的。虽然通过完全告知所有司机路线容量可以降低预期出行成本,但如果提供的信息不完全,则不一定如此。一种启发式解释是,如果没有收费,拥堵是一种未内部化的外部性。信息可能导致司机改变出发时间,从而加剧拥堵。
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Does providing information to drivers reduce traffic congestion?

The purpose of this article is to question the presumption that route guidance and information systems necessarily reduce traffic congestion, and to point out the need to consider the general equilibrium effects of information. A simple model of the morning rush hour is adopted in which commuters choose a departure time and one of two routes to work, the capacities of which are stochastic. While expected travel costs are reduced by perfectly informing all drivers about route capacities, this is not necessarily the case if imperfect information is provided. A heuristic explanation is that, absent tolls, congestion is an uninternalized externality. Information can cause drivers to change their departure times in such a way as to exacerbate congestion.

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