北极居民的未来

IF 2 Q3 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Polar Geography Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI:10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707316
T. Heleniak
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引用次数: 18

摘要

对北极国家和地区未来人口规模、组成和分布的预测对政策制定者的规划非常有用。本文介绍并分析了北极国家和地区最新的人口预测。预计全球人口增长将从目前的74亿继续增长到2055年的100亿。按照这里的定义,北极地区的人口预计变化不大,预计人口仅增长1%。然而,北极地区之间的增长率将有相当大的差异。阿拉斯加、育空、努纳武特、冰岛、特罗姆斯、汉特-曼西地区和楚科奇预计在预测期内人口将大幅增长10%以上。Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia和涅涅茨自治区的增长率预计在5%到10%之间。芬兰的凯努、卡累利阿、科米、阿尔汉格尔斯克、摩尔曼斯克和俄罗斯的马加丹的人口预计将减少5%以上。未来几乎所有北极地区的共同趋势是人口老龄化、男女性别比例更加平衡、人口更多地集中到较大的城市定居点,以及较小的定居点人口减少。
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The future of the Arctic populations
ABSTRACT Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.
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来源期刊
Polar Geography
Polar Geography GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: Polar Geographyis a quarterly publication that offers a venue for scholarly research on the physical and human aspects of the Polar Regions. The journal seeks to address the component interplay of the natural systems, the complex historical, political, economic, cultural, diplomatic, and security issues, and the interchange amongst them. As such, the journal welcomes comparative approaches, critical scholarship, and alternative and disparate perspectives from around the globe. The journal offers scientists a venue for publishing longer papers such as might result from distillation of a thesis, or review papers that place in global context results from coordinated national and international efforts currently underway in both Polar Regions.
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