教授经济学学生除标准资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和主观期望效用模型(SEU)外,处理不确定性和风险的不同模型

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.55365/1923.x2022.20.2
Lina Shoshani, M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人们对COVID-19冠状病毒未来将如何影响世界经济存在很大的不确定性(怀疑)和担忧。这种对未来的恐惧可以解释个人和国家如何通过购买决策者非常信任的黄金和/或其他“硬”资产来应对疫情。在不确定(怀疑)时期,持有黄金是对抗不确定事件对未来事件可能产生的影响的可靠和可靠的方法。COVID-19病毒引起了人们对该病毒对经济的影响的极大担忧。持有硬资产会让这些资产的持有者感到更安全,对自己成功应对和/或等待此类事件的能力更有信心。我们认为,如果在仅基于风险评估的微观经济学课程中采用的标准方法得到替代方法的补充,那么本科生毕业后将为现实世界中的决策做好更好的准备,这些替代方法不像CAPM和SEU那样将决策建模为仅在可加性和线性假设下进行。重要的是教学生如何修改他们的概率,将其转化为决策权重(a)考虑不确定性,但(b)简化为概率,如果不确定性在未来应该大幅减少。这是通过使用Tversky -Kahneman的累积前景理论和凯恩斯的《概率论》中的常规系数模型来完成的。©2022更好的进步出版社。版权所有。
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Teaching1 Economics Students about Different Models for Dealing with Uncertainty and Risk Besides the Standard Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) Model
There has been a great deal of uncertainty (doubt) and fear about how the COVID-19 corona virus would impact the world's economies in the future. This fear of the future would explain the manner in which individuals and countries have responded to the outbreaks by buying gold and/or other "hard" assets, which decision makers have great confidence in. In times of uncertainty (doubt), holding gold is a reliable and dependable way of combatting the likely impact of un-certain events on future events. The COVID-19 virus has generated a great deal of fear regarding the economic ef-fects of the virus on the economy. Holding hard assets would allow the holder of such assets to feel safer and more secure about their ability to successfully deal with and/or wait out such events . We argue that undergraduate students would be better prepared for decision making in the real world after they graduate if the standard approach taken in microeconomic courses based on risk assessment alone was supplemented by alternative treatments that do not model decision making as taking place only under the assumption of additivity and linearity as is made in CAPM and SEU. It is important to teach students how to modify their probabilities to transform them into decision weights which (a) consider uncertainty, but (b) simplify to probabilities if the uncer-tainty should diminish substantially in the future. This is accomplished by using Tversky -Kahneman's Cumulative Prospect Theory and Keynes's Conventional Coefficient model from the A Treatise on Probability. © 2022 Better Advances Press. All rights reserved.
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Review of Economics and Finance
Review of Economics and Finance Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
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