COVID-19大流行如何影响GDP增长?-美国和中国的实证研究-

Ahmed N. K. Alfarra, Ahmed M. Hagag
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文预测了2019冠状病毒病疫情期间全球数字经济的发展趋势。美国和中国被认为是世界上最大的经济体,在过去的几年里,它们都试图向完全的数字经济过渡。因此,本文使用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型和1960-2019年期间美国和中国的国内生产总值(GDP)。在新冠肺炎大流行达到顶峰之际,我们面临的一个最紧迫的问题是:新冠肺炎危机对美国和中国的GDP增长有何影响?结果表明,美国和中国2020年和2021年的GDP增长率分别约为6%和10%。第二,新冠肺炎疫情不可能影响依赖技术和数字经济的国家。可以看出,技术在我们的日常生活和国家经济中发挥着非常重要的作用。
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How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected GDP Growth?-Empirical Study on USA and China-
This paper anticipates trends in the digital economy during a COVID-19 epidemic worldwide. The United States and China are considered the world’s largest economies and have attempted to transition to fully digital economies over the last few years. Therefore, this paper used the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the gross domestic product (GDP) for the USA and China over the period 1960-2019. As we arrive at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most squeezing questions confronting us is: How has the COVID-19 crisis affected the USA and China’s GDP growth? The results have shown first that the GDP growth for both years 2020 and 2021 are approximately 6% and 10% for the USA and China, respectively. Second, the COVID-19 pandemic cannot influence the countries that depend on technology and the digital economy. It can be seen that technology is playing a very significant role in our daily life and nations’ economies.
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