基于仿真的威布尔分布参数估计方法比较研究

A. Sajib, Sabina Sharmin, Sharmin Akter
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摘要

本文旨在寻找在不同情况下威布尔分布参数(形状=α,尺度= β)估计的有效方法。采用极大似然估计法(MLE)、中位秩回归法(MRR)、最小二乘法(LSM)和加权最小二乘法(WLSM)对参数进行估计。采用均方根误差(RMSE)准则对估计器的相对效率进行了实验测量(蒙特卡罗模拟)。从模拟研究中可以观察到,对于降低风险函数(α 1),无论所有样本量大小,MLE都产生最低的RMSE。当(α >> β) WLSM对小样本量(n≤40)产生最低RMSE时,而对于大样本量,无论所有类型的危害函数如何,它都是最大均值。当(α,β→1)时,无论何种类型的风险函数,WLSM对小样本量(n≤40)产生的RMSE最低,对大样本量产生的MLE最低。当α和β具有较大的值时,这种模式变得相反。只有当危害函数平行于Y -轴(α >> β)时,MLE才会卡住,而无论所有样本量大小,WLSM都适用于这种情况(最低RMSE)。最后,通过对两个实际数据集的分析,说明了仿真结果的实用性。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),71(1):17- 25,2023 (1)
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A Simulation Based Comparative Study to Find Efficient Parameter Estimation Methods for Weibull Distribution
This paper aims to find efficient methods for estimating the parameters (shape =α , scale = β ) of Weibull distribution in different situations. The maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE), the median rank regression method (MRR), the least square method (LSM) and the weighted least square method (WLSM) are considered for the estimation of the parameters. The root mean square error (RMSE) criterion is used to measure the relative efficiency of the estimators experimentally (Monte Carlo simulation). From the simulation study, it is observed that the MLE produces the lowest RMSE, irrespective of all sample sizes, for decreasing hazard function(α << β ) (α is considerably smaller than β ) and roughly linear hazard function with a positive slope (α >1) . When (α >> β ) the WLSM produces the lowest RMSE for small sample sizes (n ≤ 40) but for large sample sizes it is the MLE, irrespective of all types of hazard functions. When (α ,β →1), the WLSM produces the lowest RMSE for small sample sizes (n ≤ 40) and the MLE for large sample sizes irrespective of all types of hazard functions. This pattern becomes reversed whenα and β have the larger value. Only the MLE gets stuck when the hazard function is parallel to Y − axis (α >> β ) and the WLSM is suitable in such a situation (lowest RMSE) irrespective of all sample sizes. Finally, the utility of simulation results have been illustrated by analyzing two real-life data sets. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 71(1): 17-25, 2023 (Jan)
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