在接种疫苗人群中模拟COVID-19突破性感染

Ming Zhu, E. Agyingi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019年发源于中国武汉的新冠肺炎疫情的影响至今仍在全球范围内蔓延。在大流行开始时,各国采取了若干措施防止病毒传播。事实证明,COVID-19疫苗的开发和供应是遏制大流行的最有效工具之一,特别是在发达国家。本文考虑了COVID-19突破感染模型,即个人在完全接种疫苗的情况下感染COVID-19的情况。所提出的模型是一种SIR模型,具有考虑接种个体的隔室,并由微分方程系统控制。我们计算了模型的基本再现数,并用它分析了局部和全局的平衡点。此外,我们使用该模型的数值模拟来了解导致突破性感染的因素,如疫苗接种率、疫苗效力和病毒传播动力学。
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Modeling COVID-19 Breakthrough Infections in a Vaccinated Population
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China in 2019 are still being felt globally. At the onset of the pandemic, countries had several measures in place to prevent the spread of the virus. The development and availability of COVID-19 vaccines turned out to be one of the most effective tools for containing the pandemic, especially in developed countries. This paper considers a model of COVID-19 breakthrough infections, which are cases where individuals become infected with COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated. The model proposed is a type of the SIR model with a compartment accounting for vaccinated individuals and is governed by a system of differential equations. We compute the basic reproduction number of the model and use it to analyze the equilibria for both local and global stability. Further, we use numerical simulations of the model to understand the factors that contribute to breakthrough infections such as vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and virus transmission dynamics.
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来源期刊
WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control
WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control Mathematics-Control and Optimization
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
期刊介绍: WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control publishes original research papers relating to systems theory and automatic control. We aim to bring important work to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of these particular areas. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. It is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with systems theory, dynamical systems, linear and non-linear control, intelligent control, robotics and related areas. We also welcome scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.
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