做出更好的基于证据的决策的认知分析

Chris Asakiewicz
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摘要

与业务决策相关的行动由一系列变量指导,这些变量包括:机会、资金类型、客户类别、能力、提案状态、资源可行性、技术可行性、能力增加、风险水平和承诺。对这些决策变量的分析,或者更可能是对与它们相关的数据的分析,是基于使用描述性的、预测性的或规定性的分析,作为对企业面临的业务问题和问题“寻找答案”的一种手段。认知分析体现了决策支持的第四个领域,它促进了对结构化和非结构化数据源的分析,并使用自然语言处理、学习和推理能力来增强假设生成。简而言之,认知分析使企业能够围绕证据“提出正确的问题”。这项研究强调了认知分析在制定基于证据的决策行动中的影响——特别是通过使用IBM SPSS Modeler和IBM Watson analytics对与新产品开发相关的资源和进度对项目风险的影响进行建模的“如果”情景。
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Cognitive Analytics for Making Better Evidence-Based Decisions
The actions associated with business decisions are guided by a range of variables, that include: opportunities, funding types, customer categories, competencies, proposal status, resource feasibility, technical feasibility, capability increase, risk level and commitment. The analysis of these decision variables or more likely the data associated with them is based on using descriptive, predictive, or prescriptive analytics as a means of “searching for answers” to the business problems and issues confronting the enterprise. Cognitive analytics embodies a fourth area of decision support that facilitates the analysis of structured and unstructured data sources and the use of natural language processing, learning and reasoning capabilities to enhance hypothesis generation. In short, cognitive analytics enables the enterprise to “ask the right questions” surrounding the evidence. This research highlights the impact of cognitive analytics in making evidence-based decision actions – specifically by modeling “what if” scenarios concerning the impact of resource and schedule on project risk associated with the development of a new product using IBM SPSS Modeler and IBM Watson Analytics.
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