{"title":"北极海冰退缩季节预报的线性混合效应模型","authors":"S. Horvath, J. Stroeve, B. Rajagopalan","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT With sea ice cover declining in recent years, access to open Arctic waters has become a growing interest to numerous stakeholders. Access requires time for planning and preparation, which creates the need for accurate seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice characteristics. One important attribute is the timing of sea ice retreat, of which current statistical and dynamic sea ice models struggle to make accurate seasonal forecasts. We develop a linear mixed effects model to provide forecast of sea ice retreat over five major regions of the Arctic – Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas. In this, the fixed effect – i.e. the mean influence of the atmosphere on sea ice retreat – is modeled using predictors that directly influence the dynamics or thermodynamics of sea ice, and random effects are grouped regionally to capture the local-scale effects on sea ice. The model exhibits very good skill in forecast of sea ice retreat at lead times of up to half a year over these regions.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A linear mixed effects model for seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat\",\"authors\":\"S. Horvath, J. Stroeve, B. Rajagopalan\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT With sea ice cover declining in recent years, access to open Arctic waters has become a growing interest to numerous stakeholders. Access requires time for planning and preparation, which creates the need for accurate seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice characteristics. One important attribute is the timing of sea ice retreat, of which current statistical and dynamic sea ice models struggle to make accurate seasonal forecasts. We develop a linear mixed effects model to provide forecast of sea ice retreat over five major regions of the Arctic – Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas. In this, the fixed effect – i.e. the mean influence of the atmosphere on sea ice retreat – is modeled using predictors that directly influence the dynamics or thermodynamics of sea ice, and random effects are grouped regionally to capture the local-scale effects on sea ice. The model exhibits very good skill in forecast of sea ice retreat at lead times of up to half a year over these regions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46164,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Polar Geography\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Polar Geography\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Polar Geography","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
A linear mixed effects model for seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat
ABSTRACT With sea ice cover declining in recent years, access to open Arctic waters has become a growing interest to numerous stakeholders. Access requires time for planning and preparation, which creates the need for accurate seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice characteristics. One important attribute is the timing of sea ice retreat, of which current statistical and dynamic sea ice models struggle to make accurate seasonal forecasts. We develop a linear mixed effects model to provide forecast of sea ice retreat over five major regions of the Arctic – Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas. In this, the fixed effect – i.e. the mean influence of the atmosphere on sea ice retreat – is modeled using predictors that directly influence the dynamics or thermodynamics of sea ice, and random effects are grouped regionally to capture the local-scale effects on sea ice. The model exhibits very good skill in forecast of sea ice retreat at lead times of up to half a year over these regions.
期刊介绍:
Polar Geographyis a quarterly publication that offers a venue for scholarly research on the physical and human aspects of the Polar Regions. The journal seeks to address the component interplay of the natural systems, the complex historical, political, economic, cultural, diplomatic, and security issues, and the interchange amongst them. As such, the journal welcomes comparative approaches, critical scholarship, and alternative and disparate perspectives from around the globe. The journal offers scientists a venue for publishing longer papers such as might result from distillation of a thesis, or review papers that place in global context results from coordinated national and international efforts currently underway in both Polar Regions.