北极海冰退缩季节预报的线性混合效应模型

IF 2 Q3 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Polar Geography Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI:10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999
S. Horvath, J. Stroeve, B. Rajagopalan
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引用次数: 2

摘要

近年来,随着海冰覆盖面积的减少,进入北极开放水域已成为众多利益相关者日益关注的问题。获取海冰需要时间进行规划和准备,这就需要对夏季海冰特征进行准确的季节性预报。一个重要的属性是海冰消退的时间,目前的统计和动态海冰模型很难做出准确的季节性预测。我们建立了一个线性混合效应模型来预测北极五个主要地区——波弗特海、楚科奇海、东西伯利亚海、拉普捷夫海和喀拉海的海冰退缩。其中,使用直接影响海冰动力学或热力学的预测因子对固定效应(即大气对海冰退缩的平均影响)进行建模,并对随机效应进行区域分组,以捕获局地尺度对海冰的影响。该模式在预测这些地区长达半年的海冰退缩方面显示出非常好的技巧。
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A linear mixed effects model for seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat
ABSTRACT With sea ice cover declining in recent years, access to open Arctic waters has become a growing interest to numerous stakeholders. Access requires time for planning and preparation, which creates the need for accurate seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice characteristics. One important attribute is the timing of sea ice retreat, of which current statistical and dynamic sea ice models struggle to make accurate seasonal forecasts. We develop a linear mixed effects model to provide forecast of sea ice retreat over five major regions of the Arctic – Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas. In this, the fixed effect – i.e. the mean influence of the atmosphere on sea ice retreat – is modeled using predictors that directly influence the dynamics or thermodynamics of sea ice, and random effects are grouped regionally to capture the local-scale effects on sea ice. The model exhibits very good skill in forecast of sea ice retreat at lead times of up to half a year over these regions.
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来源期刊
Polar Geography
Polar Geography GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: Polar Geographyis a quarterly publication that offers a venue for scholarly research on the physical and human aspects of the Polar Regions. The journal seeks to address the component interplay of the natural systems, the complex historical, political, economic, cultural, diplomatic, and security issues, and the interchange amongst them. As such, the journal welcomes comparative approaches, critical scholarship, and alternative and disparate perspectives from around the globe. The journal offers scientists a venue for publishing longer papers such as might result from distillation of a thesis, or review papers that place in global context results from coordinated national and international efforts currently underway in both Polar Regions.
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