基于修正杂质重要性和半参数广义加性模型的低交通流量长通道实时碰撞预测

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1898069
Arash Khoda Bakhshi, Mohamed M. Ahmed
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引用次数: 32

摘要

实时风险评估研究调查了有限长度的走廊。然而,评估联网汽车(cv)安全性能的必要性需要研究整个走廊。与怀俄明州402英里的80号州际公路上的CV试点项目相一致,本研究可作为量化CV预部署期间走廊安全性能的基线。对实时交通相关预测因子进行表征,以捕捉交通特征的纵向和横向空间变化。9个碰撞预测模型(cpm)在两个主要部分进行匹配案例控制设计。首先,使用三种特征选择技术检测重要的预测因子;校正杂质重要性(CII),平均减少杂质,和平均减少精度。其次,针对所选的三组特征,分别建立三种不同的Logistic回归模型;广义加性模型(GAM)、广义线性模型和广义非线性模型。GAM和CII的组合在获得最小误差、最大预测性能和检测到更多显著预测因子方面优于其他cpm,这将通过比较部署前和部署后的CVs来增强少量CVs的安全性能测量。研究结果表明,调查单个车道有利于了解交通量相对较少的走廊上的碰撞模式。
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Real-time crash prediction for a long low-traffic volume corridor using corrected-impurity importance and semi-parametric generalized additive model
Abstract Real-time risk assessment studies have investigated a limited length of corridors. However, the necessity of assessing the safety performance of Connected Vehicles (CVs) requires looking into an entire corridor. Aligned with the CV Pilot Program on 402-miles Interstate-80 in Wyoming, this study serves as a baseline to quantify the safety performance of the corridor during CV pre-deployment. Real-time traffic-related predictors were characterized to capture the spatial variation in traffic characteristics, both longitudinally and laterally. Nine Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) were conducted following the matched-case control design within two main parts. First, important predictors were detected using three feature selection techniques; Corrected-Impurity Importance (CII), Mean Decrease Impurity, and Mean Decrease Accuracy. Secondly, for each of the three sets of selected features, three different Logistic Regression models were developed; the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Generalized Linear Model, and Generalized Nonlinear Model. The combined GAM and CII outperformed other CPMs by obtaining minimum error, maximum prediction performance, and detecting a larger number of significant predictors, which would enhance the safety performance measurement of the few numbers of CVs by comparing CVs pre- to post-deployment. Findings showed that investigating individual lanes is beneficial to comprehend crash patterns on corridors with comparatively less traffic volume.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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