电池存储成本的进一步下降可以为太阳能光伏主导的印度电力系统铺平道路

Ahmad Murtaza Ershad , Falko Ueckerdt , Robert C. Pietzcker , Anastasis Giannousakis , Gunnar Luderer
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引用次数: 10

摘要

主要以煤炭为动力的印度已经制定了雄心勃勃的可再生能源目标,目前正在考虑2050年的气候中和目标。太阳能光伏发电的快速发展面临着由于其可变发电导致其经济价值下降的挑战。在本文中,我们评估了在电池成本进一步降低的三种情况下,电池储能稳定太阳能光伏市场价值的潜力。我们使用开源电力部门模型估算2040年印度批发电力市场的最佳电池存储和发电能力及其每小时运行情况。我们发现,在我们的中心(乐观)电池成本情景中,电池存储将最佳太阳能光伏份额从~ 40- 50%(无电池)增加到~ 65%(90%),而在我们的悲观电池成本情景中,它们几乎没有增加。我们的结论是,如果电池成本降至200美元/千瓦时以下(包括系统平衡成本),它们可能成为向太阳能光伏主导的印度能源系统过渡的必要条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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A further decline in battery storage costs can pave the way for a solar PV-dominated Indian power system

India, mainly powered by coal, has adopted ambitious renewable energy targets and currently considers a climate neutrality target for 2050. The rapid growth of solar PV power faces challenges due to its variable generation resulting in a decline in its economic value. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of battery storage to stabilize the market value of solar PV for three scenarios of further battery costs decrease. We estimate optimal battery storage and power generating capacities and their hourly operation in a 2040 Indian wholesale electricity market using an open-source power sector model. We find that battery storage increases the optimal solar PV shares from ∼40-50 % (without batteries) to ∼65 % (90%) in our central (optimistic) battery cost scenarios, while they hardly increase in our pessimistic battery cost scenario. We conclude that if battery cost drop to below ∼200 USD/kWh (including balance-of-system costs) they could become essential in a transition to a solar PV-dominant Indian energy system.

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