欧洲海域多模式的海面水动力预报汇总

V. Frishfelds, J. She, Jens Murawski, J. W. Nielsen
{"title":"欧洲海域多模式的海面水动力预报汇总","authors":"V. Frishfelds, J. She, Jens Murawski, J. W. Nielsen","doi":"10.12716/1001.17.03.04","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":": Maritime information services supporting European agencies such as the FRONTEX require European ‐ wide forecast solutions. Following a consistent approach, regional and global forecasts of the sea surface conditions from Copernicus Marine Service and national met ‐ ocean services are aggregated in space and time to provide a European ‐ wide forecast service on a common grid for the assistance of Search and Rescue operations. The best regional oceanographic model solutions are selected in regional seas with seamless transition to the global products covering the Atlantic Ocean. The regional forecast models cover the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea and combine the North Sea – Baltic Sea at the Danish straits. Two global models have been added to cover the entire model domain, including the regional models. The aggregated product is required to have an update frequency of 4 times a day and a forecasting range of 7 days, which most of the regional models do not provide. Therefore, smooth transition in time, from the shorter time ‐ range, regional forecast models to the global model with longer forecast range are applied. The set of parameter required for Search and Rescue operations include sea surface temperature and currents, waves and winds. The current version of the aggregation method was developed for surface temperature and surface currents but it will be extended to waves in latter stages. The method relies on the calculation of aggregation weights for individual models. For sea surface temperature (SST), near real ‐ time satellite data at clear ‐ sky locations for the past days is used to determine the aggregation weights of individual forecast models. A more complicated method is to use a weighted multi ‐ model ensemble (MME) approach based on best forecast features of individual models and possibly including near real time observations. The developed method explores how satellite observations can be used to assess spatially varying, near real time weights of different forecasts. The results showed that, although","PeriodicalId":46009,"journal":{"name":"TransNav-International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Aggregating Sea Surface Hydrodynamic Forecasts From Multi-Models for European Seas\",\"authors\":\"V. Frishfelds, J. She, Jens Murawski, J. W. Nielsen\",\"doi\":\"10.12716/1001.17.03.04\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\": Maritime information services supporting European agencies such as the FRONTEX require European ‐ wide forecast solutions. Following a consistent approach, regional and global forecasts of the sea surface conditions from Copernicus Marine Service and national met ‐ ocean services are aggregated in space and time to provide a European ‐ wide forecast service on a common grid for the assistance of Search and Rescue operations. The best regional oceanographic model solutions are selected in regional seas with seamless transition to the global products covering the Atlantic Ocean. The regional forecast models cover the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea and combine the North Sea – Baltic Sea at the Danish straits. Two global models have been added to cover the entire model domain, including the regional models. The aggregated product is required to have an update frequency of 4 times a day and a forecasting range of 7 days, which most of the regional models do not provide. Therefore, smooth transition in time, from the shorter time ‐ range, regional forecast models to the global model with longer forecast range are applied. The set of parameter required for Search and Rescue operations include sea surface temperature and currents, waves and winds. The current version of the aggregation method was developed for surface temperature and surface currents but it will be extended to waves in latter stages. The method relies on the calculation of aggregation weights for individual models. For sea surface temperature (SST), near real ‐ time satellite data at clear ‐ sky locations for the past days is used to determine the aggregation weights of individual forecast models. A more complicated method is to use a weighted multi ‐ model ensemble (MME) approach based on best forecast features of individual models and possibly including near real time observations. The developed method explores how satellite observations can be used to assess spatially varying, near real time weights of different forecasts. The results showed that, although\",\"PeriodicalId\":46009,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"TransNav-International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"TransNav-International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.17.03.04\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"TransNav-International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.17.03.04","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

:支持欧洲机构(如FRONTEX)的海事信息服务需要全欧洲范围的预报解决方案。遵循一致的方法,哥白尼海洋服务和国家气象海洋服务的区域和全球海面状况预报在空间和时间上进行汇总,在共同网格上提供全欧洲范围的预报服务,以协助搜索和救援行动。在区域海域选择最佳的区域海洋学模型解决方案,无缝过渡到覆盖大西洋的全球产品。区域预报模式覆盖黑海、地中海、波罗的海、北海以及北海-波罗的海在丹麦海峡的结合部。已经添加了两个全局模型来覆盖整个模型域,包括区域模型。汇总后的产品需要每天更新4次,预测范围为7天,这是大多数区域模型所不具备的。因此,从较短时间范围的区域预报模式到较长时间范围的全球预报模式在时间上是平滑过渡的。搜救行动所需的一组参数包括海面温度、海流、海浪和风。当前版本的聚合方法是针对表面温度和表面电流开发的,但在后期阶段将扩展到波浪。该方法依赖于计算单个模型的聚合权值。对于海表温度(SST),使用过去几天晴空位置的近实时卫星数据来确定各个预报模式的汇总权重。一种更复杂的方法是使用加权多模型集成(MME)方法,该方法基于单个模型的最佳预测特征,并可能包括近实时观测。所开发的方法探讨了如何利用卫星观测来评估不同预报的空间变化、接近实时的权重。结果表明,尽管
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Aggregating Sea Surface Hydrodynamic Forecasts From Multi-Models for European Seas
: Maritime information services supporting European agencies such as the FRONTEX require European ‐ wide forecast solutions. Following a consistent approach, regional and global forecasts of the sea surface conditions from Copernicus Marine Service and national met ‐ ocean services are aggregated in space and time to provide a European ‐ wide forecast service on a common grid for the assistance of Search and Rescue operations. The best regional oceanographic model solutions are selected in regional seas with seamless transition to the global products covering the Atlantic Ocean. The regional forecast models cover the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea and combine the North Sea – Baltic Sea at the Danish straits. Two global models have been added to cover the entire model domain, including the regional models. The aggregated product is required to have an update frequency of 4 times a day and a forecasting range of 7 days, which most of the regional models do not provide. Therefore, smooth transition in time, from the shorter time ‐ range, regional forecast models to the global model with longer forecast range are applied. The set of parameter required for Search and Rescue operations include sea surface temperature and currents, waves and winds. The current version of the aggregation method was developed for surface temperature and surface currents but it will be extended to waves in latter stages. The method relies on the calculation of aggregation weights for individual models. For sea surface temperature (SST), near real ‐ time satellite data at clear ‐ sky locations for the past days is used to determine the aggregation weights of individual forecast models. A more complicated method is to use a weighted multi ‐ model ensemble (MME) approach based on best forecast features of individual models and possibly including near real time observations. The developed method explores how satellite observations can be used to assess spatially varying, near real time weights of different forecasts. The results showed that, although
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
16.70%
发文量
22
审稿时长
40 weeks
期刊最新文献
The Concept of Determining the Ship’s Route Based on the Capability Plots The DIA-Method for Navigational Integrity Impact of Late and Early Fuel Injection on Main Engine Efficiency and Exhaust Gas Emissions Seeking the Best Practices of Assessment in Maritime Simulator Training Digital Transformation in Ferry Shipping – Case Study in the Baltic Sea Region
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1