西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的分类模式随机模拟

IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 热带气象学报 Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI:10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.005
Hu Wen-feng, L. Da-wei, Shao Meng-kai
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引用次数: 2

摘要

准确模拟热带气旋路径是进行热带气旋风险评估的先决条件。针对西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的空间特征,采用基于分类模式的随机模拟方法对该地区热带气旋路径进行模拟。这种模拟包括分类方法、成因模型、行进模型和裂解模型。根据西北太平洋地区热带气旋的运动特征和转向位置,将其分为五类。在成因模型中,采用高斯核概率密度函数和有偏交叉验证方法模拟年发生数和成因位置。根据历史经纬度位移的平均误差和均方误差建立了旅行模型。在裂解模型中,以终止概率作为判别标准。然后,应用该方法对热带气旋路径进行了随机模拟,并用不同的诊断方法对其进行了定性评价。结果表明,该分类模式能较好地模拟西北太平洋热带气旋路径。
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STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION WITH CLASSIFICATION MODEL
Accurate simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone risk assessment. Against the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region, stochastic simulation method based on classification model is used to simulate tropical cyclone tracks in this region. Such simulation includes the classification method, the genesis model, the traveling model, and the lysis model. Tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region are classified into five categories on the basis of its movement characteristics and steering positions. In the genesis model, Gaussian kernel probability density functions with the biased cross validation method are used to simulate the annual occurrence number and genesis positions. The traveling model is established on the basis of the mean and mean square error of the historical 6h latitude and longitude displacements. The termination probability is used as the discrimination standard in the lysis model. Then, this stochastic simulation method of tropical cyclone tracks is applied and qualitatively evaluated with different diagnostics. Results show that the tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific can be satisfactorily simulated with this classification model.
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来源期刊
热带气象学报
热带气象学报 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
2793
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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