新冠肺炎疫情对油价的影响:来自土耳其的证据

M. Kartal
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引用次数: 23

摘要

本研究使用土耳其每日数据(2019年7月25日至2020年10月30日)考察了本币油价对COVID-19大流行的反应。采用多元自适应回归样条模型,考虑外汇(美元- try)、信用违约互换价差、全球不确定性和全球波动率作为控制变量。研究结果表明:(1)无论样本量大小,波动率指数对油价的影响最大;(ii) 2019冠状病毒病大流行影响了土耳其本币油价的有效变量的重要性。
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The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Oil Prices: Evidence From Turkey
This study examines the reaction of local currency oil prices to the COVID-19 pandemic using Turkish daily data (July 25, 2019 to October 30, 2020). A multivariate adaptive regression splines model is employed that considers foreign exchange (USD-TRY), credit default swap spread, global uncertainty, and global volatility as control variables. The findings show that: (i) the volatility index influences oil prices most regardless of the sample size; and (ii) the COVID-19 pandemic affects the importance of effective variables on the local currency oil prices in Turkey.
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