{"title":"时间序列分析在婺源县降水预报中的应用","authors":"Yang Leilei, Lu Wenxi","doi":"10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893525","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Based on time series analysis, through analyzing and processing the variation of monthly precipitation volume from 1999 to 2008 of Wuyuan County, Inner Mongolia, the next 5 years' monthly precipitation volume was forecast. Using time series analysis to extract periodic and stochastic items, finally the prediction model was obtained, if the accuracy meet the requirements, it can be used for the forecast. The results showed that Wuyuan county's monthly precipitation series mainly had two cycles, one for 7 years, reflecting the inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall, another cycle length is 1 year, reflecting the uneven characteristics of precipitation during the year.","PeriodicalId":6425,"journal":{"name":"2011 International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Protection","volume":"56 1","pages":"3063-3065"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2011-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The application of time series analysis in precipitation forecast in Wuyuan County\",\"authors\":\"Yang Leilei, Lu Wenxi\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893525\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Based on time series analysis, through analyzing and processing the variation of monthly precipitation volume from 1999 to 2008 of Wuyuan County, Inner Mongolia, the next 5 years' monthly precipitation volume was forecast. Using time series analysis to extract periodic and stochastic items, finally the prediction model was obtained, if the accuracy meet the requirements, it can be used for the forecast. The results showed that Wuyuan county's monthly precipitation series mainly had two cycles, one for 7 years, reflecting the inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall, another cycle length is 1 year, reflecting the uneven characteristics of precipitation during the year.\",\"PeriodicalId\":6425,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2011 International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Protection\",\"volume\":\"56 1\",\"pages\":\"3063-3065\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2011-05-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2011 International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Protection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893525\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2011 International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Protection","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893525","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The application of time series analysis in precipitation forecast in Wuyuan County
Based on time series analysis, through analyzing and processing the variation of monthly precipitation volume from 1999 to 2008 of Wuyuan County, Inner Mongolia, the next 5 years' monthly precipitation volume was forecast. Using time series analysis to extract periodic and stochastic items, finally the prediction model was obtained, if the accuracy meet the requirements, it can be used for the forecast. The results showed that Wuyuan county's monthly precipitation series mainly had two cycles, one for 7 years, reflecting the inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall, another cycle length is 1 year, reflecting the uneven characteristics of precipitation during the year.
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