Escalation of commitment is independent of numeracy and cognitive reflection. Failed replication and extension of Staw (1976)

Abstract First demonstrated by Staw (1976), escalation of commitment is the tendency for an individual to increase their commitment to a failing course of action when they are personally responsible for the negative consequences. An attempt was made to replicate this finding and test whether individual differences in numeracy and cognitive reflection could help explain such an effect. No evidence for escalation of commitment amongst the participants was found (N = 365). Participants simply invested more in more promising projects. Also, no evidence was found that numeracy or cognitive reflection predict escalation behaviour. The validity of escalation of commitment behaviour is discussed which suggests that future work should look to explore the boundary conditions of such an effect.