This study proposes two novel tests for security analyst herding based on binomial correlation and forecast error volatility scaling and applies it to investigate herding patterns in analyst target prices in 2008-2020 in the UK. Analysts robustly herd in their valuations, with results consistent across years, sectors, in panel fixed effect, quantile, instrumental variable regressions, and when controlled for optimism and conservatism. Herding becomes prominent for stocks followed by at least five analysts and towards the long sides of Fama-French sorts, reinforcing its non-spurious and behavioral nature. Analyst herd more strongly subject to low volatility and uncertainty.
{"title":"Analyst herding – whether, why, and when? Two new tests for herding detection in target forecast prices","authors":"Binam Ghimire, Callum Reveley, Savva Shanaev, Humnath Panta","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.892","url":null,"abstract":"This study proposes two novel tests for security analyst herding based on binomial correlation and forecast error volatility scaling and applies it to investigate herding patterns in analyst target prices in 2008-2020 in the UK. Analysts robustly herd in their valuations, with results consistent across years, sectors, in panel fixed effect, quantile, instrumental variable regressions, and when controlled for optimism and conservatism. Herding becomes prominent for stocks followed by at least five analysts and towards the long sides of Fama-French sorts, reinforcing its non-spurious and behavioral nature. Analyst herd more strongly subject to low volatility and uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"6 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139149437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article presents a multiproduct model of a non-stationary Gale-type economy with technology convergent to a certain limit technology, in which changes in the production technology (the dynamics of the Gale production spaces) are ruled by the size of investments. Thus, the considered model differs from the vast majority of the Gale-type models considered in the mathematical economy. With this assumption, the so-called “very strong” version of the multilane production turnpike theorem in the Gale economy with investments is proved. According to the theorem, if the optimal growth process in such an economy reaches the multilane turnpike, it remains on it from then on, except for, possibly the last period of the analysed economic horizon.
{"title":"“Very strong” turnpike effect in a non-stationary Gale economy with investments, multilane turnpike and limit technology","authors":"Emil Panek","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.891","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a multiproduct model of a non-stationary Gale-type economy with technology convergent to a certain limit technology, in which changes in the production technology (the dynamics of the Gale production spaces) are ruled by the size of investments. Thus, the considered model differs from the vast majority of the Gale-type models considered in the mathematical economy. With this assumption, the so-called “very strong” version of the multilane production turnpike theorem in the Gale economy with investments is proved. According to the theorem, if the optimal growth process in such an economy reaches the multilane turnpike, it remains on it from then on, except for, possibly the last period of the analysed economic horizon.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139153986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The migration process is becoming more and more intensive in European region. There are different opinions about effects from immigration on country economy. Most of them show the positive effect via fulfilling deficit in labour market and tax payments. From the other hand, there is negative long-term effect on social security system because of poor integration of immigrants into domestic population. This paper analyses effects from immigration based on United nations National transfer accounts methodology invented by Lee and Mason. This methodology is called to break down system of national accounts with respect to age groups or generations and shows economic flows between them. Findings of this paper show that earnings and consumption behaviour of immigrants and natives in Slovakia differs – immigrants work after retirement age, earn more and consume less, what leads to positive effects in aggregate life cycle deficit.
欧洲地区的移民进程越来越密集。关于移民对国家经济的影响，人们有不同的看法。大多数人认为，移民可以弥补劳动力市场和税收方面的不足，从而产生积极影响。另一方面，由于移民未能很好地融入国内人口，对社会保障体系产生了长期的负面影响。本文根据 Lee 和 Mason 发明的联合国国民转移账户方法分析了移民的影响。这种方法将国民账户体系按年龄组或世代进行细分，并显示他们之间的经济流动。本文的研究结果表明，斯洛伐克移民和本地人的收入和消费行为不同--移民在退休年龄后工作，收入更高，消费更少，这导致了生命周期总赤字的积极影响。
{"title":"Assessment of the immigrants’ impact on Slovak economy","authors":"Raman Herasimau","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.777","url":null,"abstract":"The migration process is becoming more and more intensive in European region. There are different opinions about effects from immigration on country economy. Most of them show the positive effect via fulfilling deficit in labour market and tax payments. From the other hand, there is negative long-term effect on social security system because of poor integration of immigrants into domestic population. This paper analyses effects from immigration based on United nations National transfer accounts methodology invented by Lee and Mason. This methodology is called to break down system of national accounts with respect to age groups or generations and shows economic flows between them. Findings of this paper show that earnings and consumption behaviour of immigrants and natives in Slovakia differs – immigrants work after retirement age, earn more and consume less, what leads to positive effects in aggregate life cycle deficit.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"13 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139154800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-11DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1074
Cengizhan Karaca
This study examines whether there is a causal and nonlinear relationship between trade credit policy and firm value. In line with this purpose, the 2005Q1 - 2018Q4 period data is examined for 103 companies operating in the manufacturing industry in an emerging market, Borsa Istanbul, and the relationships revealed. The nonlinear relationship between trade credit and firm value has been proved with the Two-step System GMM (Generalized Moment of Methods) and causality with Dumitrescu - Hurlin (2012) heterogeneous panel causality tests. According to the findings, a nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship has been found between trade credit policy and firm value. Moreover, the values of firms that have moved away from optimum trade credit levels are also negatively affected. One of the original aspects of this study is that the bidirectional causal relationship between trade credit policy and firm value has been revealed.
{"title":"A causal and nonlinear relationship between trade credit policy and firm value: evidence from an emerging market","authors":"Cengizhan Karaca","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1074","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines whether there is a causal and nonlinear relationship between trade credit policy and firm value. In line with this purpose, the 2005Q1 - 2018Q4 period data is examined for 103 companies operating in the manufacturing industry in an emerging market, Borsa Istanbul, and the relationships revealed. The nonlinear relationship between trade credit and firm value has been proved with the Two-step System GMM (Generalized Moment of Methods) and causality with Dumitrescu - Hurlin (2012) heterogeneous panel causality tests. According to the findings, a nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship has been found between trade credit policy and firm value. Moreover, the values of firms that have moved away from optimum trade credit levels are also negatively affected. One of the original aspects of this study is that the bidirectional causal relationship between trade credit policy and firm value has been revealed.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139183274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-11DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1072
Wiktor Błoch
The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the savings rate in middle-income countries and to compare the results with other studies devoted to different subgroups of countries. Among the potential determinants of savings the study considers: demography, income level, financial sector, international trade, inflation and the structure of the economy. The research sample is confined to 44 middle-income countries and covers the period between 2000 and 2019. Six model specifications are constructed using three different estimators: FE, FGLS and PCSE. In the next step the same models are estimated using alternative dependent variables. Results suggest that industrial share in GDP has a positive impact on the savings rate. On the other hand a negative relationship was diagnosed between the savings and unemployment rates, the share of labour compensation in GDP, military expenditure, inflation and the young dependency ratio.
{"title":"What drives the savings rate in middle-income countries?","authors":"Wiktor Błoch","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1072","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the savings rate in middle-income countries and to compare the results with other studies devoted to different subgroups of countries. Among the potential determinants of savings the study considers: demography, income level, financial sector, international trade, inflation and the structure of the economy. The research sample is confined to 44 middle-income countries and covers the period between 2000 and 2019. Six model specifications are constructed using three different estimators: FE, FGLS and PCSE. In the next step the same models are estimated using alternative dependent variables. Results suggest that industrial share in GDP has a positive impact on the savings rate. On the other hand a negative relationship was diagnosed between the savings and unemployment rates, the share of labour compensation in GDP, military expenditure, inflation and the young dependency ratio.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"11 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139183694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-11DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1075
Bartłomiej Pilch
The aim of the paper is to analyse the effectiveness of F-Score-like models using the example of the Polish stock market. F-Score is a scoring model based on a high B/M investing strategy, which uses fundamental signals to assess the economic condition of an entity. So far, its effectiveness has been generally proven in numerous stock markets worldwide. However, no comprehensive study focusing on the Polish market has been conducted. Therefore, F-Score and similar models (FS-Score and PiotroskiTrfm) were analysed in this regard. It was shown that companies with higher scores generated positive both raw and market-adjusted returns on average. However, they were lower than the mean returns of low-score companies (for FS-Score) or total high B/M portfolio (regarding F-Score and PiotroskiTrfm). The results of the study show that F-Score, FS-Score and PiotroskiTrfm are generally effective investing tools. However, it might be more advisable for value investors to choose a total high B/M portfolio instead of shares of high-score entities according to F-Score or PiotroskiTrfm.
{"title":"Is value investing based on scoring models effective? The verification of F-Score-based strategy in the Polish stock market","authors":"Bartłomiej Pilch","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1075","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the paper is to analyse the effectiveness of F-Score-like models using the example of the Polish stock market. F-Score is a scoring model based on a high B/M investing strategy, which uses fundamental signals to assess the economic condition of an entity. So far, its effectiveness has been generally proven in numerous stock markets worldwide. However, no comprehensive study focusing on the Polish market has been conducted. Therefore, F-Score and similar models (FS-Score and PiotroskiTrfm) were analysed in this regard. It was shown that companies with higher scores generated positive both raw and market-adjusted returns on average. However, they were lower than the mean returns of low-score companies (for FS-Score) or total high B/M portfolio (regarding F-Score and PiotroskiTrfm). The results of the study show that F-Score, FS-Score and PiotroskiTrfm are generally effective investing tools. However, it might be more advisable for value investors to choose a total high B/M portfolio instead of shares of high-score entities according to F-Score or PiotroskiTrfm.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139183502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-11DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073
Katarzyna Czech, Michał Wielechowski
The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying the k-means clustering, there are distinguished three country groups similar with regard to regarding their energy intensity, energy dependence (including Russian gas dependence) and household budgets' exposure to energy prices. Based on Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict and differences in the 2022 forecasts' changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
{"title":"Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?","authors":"Katarzyna Czech, Michał Wielechowski","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073","url":null,"abstract":"The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying the k-means clustering, there are distinguished three country groups similar with regard to regarding their energy intensity, energy dependence (including Russian gas dependence) and household budgets' exposure to energy prices. Based on Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict and differences in the 2022 forecasts' changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"161 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139184112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The aim of the paper is to identify the relevant prior research focused on the Formulary Apportionment methodology in the European Union, to explore the current literature and develop directions for future research. Reflecting upon the announced European Commission’s Proposal for new framework for business taxation and the foreseeable upswing of academic discussion focused on the formulary apportionment methodology this paper represents the first systematic literature review on this topic. The study identifies eight main thematic clusters, provides an interpretative framework and suggests valuable future research directions within each thematic cluster as well as general future research agenda.
{"title":"Formulary apportionment in the European Union—future research agenda","authors":"Markéta Mlčúchová","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.3.798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.3.798","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of the paper is to identify the relevant prior research focused on the Formulary Apportionment methodology in the European Union, to explore the current literature and develop directions for future research. Reflecting upon the announced European Commission’s Proposal for new framework for business taxation and the foreseeable upswing of academic discussion focused on the formulary apportionment methodology this paper represents the first systematic literature review on this topic. The study identifies eight main thematic clusters, provides an interpretative framework and suggests valuable future research directions within each thematic cluster as well as general future research agenda.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"9 1","pages":"124 - 152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79290363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study aims to examine the relationship between firm size and firm growth in Vietnam. The literature does not in general give support to Gibrat’s law stating that the expected increase in firm size is proportionate to its initial size, or that firm growth rates are independent of firm size. The present study relies on a sample of 578 listed Vietnamese companies representing eight different industries and covering the period 2010 to 2020. The analysis reveals that growth in firm revenues does not give support to a hypothesis of independence of initial firm sizes. When the firm size is measured by total assets the opposite result appears, i.e. the Gibrat’s law is not rejected. When including also the age of the firms in the test methodology the conclusion will be that firm growth—measured by revenue or assets—in all cases will decrease with firm size.
{"title":"Does firm size improve firm growth? Empirical evidence from an emerging economy","authors":"J. Bentzen, L. Tung","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.3.793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.3.793","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study aims to examine the relationship between firm size and firm growth in Vietnam. The literature does not in general give support to Gibrat’s law stating that the expected increase in firm size is proportionate to its initial size, or that firm growth rates are independent of firm size. The present study relies on a sample of 578 listed Vietnamese companies representing eight different industries and covering the period 2010 to 2020. The analysis reveals that growth in firm revenues does not give support to a hypothesis of independence of initial firm sizes. When the firm size is measured by total assets the opposite result appears, i.e. the Gibrat’s law is not rejected. When including also the age of the firms in the test methodology the conclusion will be that firm growth—measured by revenue or assets—in all cases will decrease with firm size.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"5 1","pages":"9 - 21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77967984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aditi M. Goel, Dolly Gaur, K. Gupta, Kanishka Gupta
Abstract The aim of the paper is to explore the factors impacting export intensity of SMEs in India. It examines the influence of various firm level variables on export intensity. The sample considered for the study includes 50 SME firms from different industries ranging from equipment and manufacturing to textile. Data for ten years (2011–2020) has been analyzed for drawing relevant results. For regression, Least Square Dummy Variable corrected (LSDVC) estimates have been used to address the issue of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation issue present in the data. The results arrived at indicate that the expenditure incurred on research and development, selling and distribution acts as an investment which provides returns in terms of better export performance. Also, top managers having international experience can be an important asset for a firm looking for expanding in international market. These results have substantial implications for the management of SME firms.
{"title":"Factors impacting export intensity of SMEs in India","authors":"Aditi M. Goel, Dolly Gaur, K. Gupta, Kanishka Gupta","doi":"10.18559/ebr.2023.3.796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.3.796","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of the paper is to explore the factors impacting export intensity of SMEs in India. It examines the influence of various firm level variables on export intensity. The sample considered for the study includes 50 SME firms from different industries ranging from equipment and manufacturing to textile. Data for ten years (2011–2020) has been analyzed for drawing relevant results. For regression, Least Square Dummy Variable corrected (LSDVC) estimates have been used to address the issue of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation issue present in the data. The results arrived at indicate that the expenditure incurred on research and development, selling and distribution acts as an investment which provides returns in terms of better export performance. Also, top managers having international experience can be an important asset for a firm looking for expanding in international market. These results have substantial implications for the management of SME firms.","PeriodicalId":41557,"journal":{"name":"Economics and Business Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"22 - 43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78965179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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