应用人工神经网络模型预测伊拉克新冠肺炎疫情死亡人数

Mohammed Habeb AlSharoot, Noor Chyad Alisawi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

时间序列预测是一个重要的统计学课题,可以帮助研究人员进行规划和决策,因此本研究涉及以人工神经网络模型为代表的现代预测方法,特别是多层神经网络,而反向传播算法已经多次依赖于训练而较少选择。为获得描述数据的最佳模型,以及Box- Jenkins模型等经典预测方法,将该模型应用于以2020年2月24日至2020年3月5日期间伊拉克感染冠状病毒(Covid-19)人数为代表的真实数据。结果表明,未来对冠状病毒感染人数的预测在30-67年期间开始下降,然后趋于稳定。通过统计程序R对数据进行分析并提取结果。
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The Using Artificial Neural Network Model to Prediction the Number of Peoples Afflicted by the Epidemic of (COVID-19) in Iraq
Time-series prediction is an important statistical topic to help researchers in planning and making the right decisions, so this study deals with modern prediction methods, represented by the Artificial Neural Network models, specifically the multi-layered neural network, and the back propagation algorithm has been relied upon several times for training and less selection. A value for error to obtain the best model for describing the data, as well as classic prediction methods such as Box- Jenkins' models, the model was applied to real data represented by the number of people infected with Coronavirus (Covid-19) in Iraq for the period from 2/24/2020 until 3/5/ 2020 On a daily basis, the results showed that future predictions for the number of people infected with Coronavirus began to decline and then stabilized in the period (30-67). The data were analyzed and the results were extracted depending on the statistical program R.
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