何时负责从单个实例进行泛化?

Q2 Arts and Humanities Cogency Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI:10.32995/COGENCY.V12I2.359
David Botting
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引用次数: 0

摘要

虽然大样本总是比小样本好,并且总是比小样本赋予更大的理由,但本文认为,即使是小样本也可以被合理地认为是代表总体的,我们有理由相信,或者通过概括来支持一般主张。在这些情况下,从小样本中进行归纳推断并不是错误的。我将描述三个这样的场景。另一方面,当它不能被合理地认为是人口的代表,那么它总是错误的,不管其他考虑。我将描述一个这样的场景,在这个场景中,从一个小样本中进行概括被认为是基于认知经济学的,并且将证明这种说法是错误的,除非该场景减少到前三个场景之一。由于从单个实例进行泛化是从小样本进行泛化的一种限制情况,因此我将重点讨论从单个实例进行泛化。对于单个实例可以显示的任何东西,对于所有小样本都遵循一个比率。事实证明,一个理性者凭良心推理很难得出草率概括的谬误,如果一个谬误只能由不真诚的理性者犯,而不能由理性者凭良心推理得出,那么它就不是很有趣,因为它并不是一个真正的推理错误。这样做的原因是,对于推理者来说,推理是错误的,他们必须故意忽视证据,而这是一个真诚的推理者不太可能做的事情。同样,指控某人犯了这个谬论也不容易证实,这等于指责推理者不真诚。
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When is it responsible to generalize from a single instance?
Although large samples are always better than small samples and always confer greater justification on general claims than small samples, this paper argues for situations where even a small sample can justifiably be thought to be representative of the population and we are justified in believing, or having a pro-attitude towards, a general claim by generalizing from it. It is not fallacious to make inductive inferences in these situations from small samples. I will describe three such scenarios. On the other hand, when it cannot justifiably be thought to be representative of the population then it is always fallacious, irrespective of other considerations. I will describe one such scenario in which generalizing from a small sample has been claimed to be justified on the grounds of cognitive economy and will show that this claim is false unless the scenario reduces to one of the first three. Since generalizing from a single instance is a limiting case of generalizing from a small sample, I will focus on generalizing from a single instance. Whatever can be shown with regard to a single instance follows a fortiori for all small samples. As it turns out, it is very difficult for a reasoner reasoning in good conscience to commit to a fallacy of hasty generalization, and if a fallacy can only be committed by insincere reasoners and cannot be made by reasoners reasoning in good conscience, then it is not very interesting, as it is not really an error in reasoning. The reason for this is that for the reasoner to have reasoned fallaciously, they must have knowingly ignored evidence, and this is something that a sincere reasoner is not likely to have done. Equally, the charge that someone has committed this fallacy is not easy to substantiate and amounts to accusing the reasoner of insincerity.
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来源期刊
Cogency
Cogency Arts and Humanities-Language and Linguistics
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
5
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Cogency is an international journal devoted to research and scholarship in reasoning and argumentation. The journal seeks to be a source of reference which elucidates our understanding of these fields of study with a particular interest in their educational dimension. It aims to contribute to education by advancing our theoretical and practical understanding of reasoning and argumentation. Authors are encourage to use and integrate perspectives originating in psychology, philosophy, linguistics, formal and informal logic, rhetoric, critical thinking, amongst others disciplines and angles. Cogency publishes articles and book reviews.
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