The Long-Term Global Health Burden from Nuclear Weapon Test Explosions in the Atmosphere: Revisiting Andrei Sakharov’s 1958 Estimates

Abstract In 1958, the Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov published an estimate of the long-term health impacts from carbon-14 produced by nuclear test explosions in the atmosphere. At the time, Sakharov was an important contributor to the Soviet Union's development of multi-megaton thermonuclear weapons. This was Sakharov's first public expression of concern about the weapons work in which he was involved. Subsequently, he became a campaigner for human rights in the Soviet Union and for international cooperation and received the 1975 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of the importance of his efforts. This article provides some context for his estimate and compares it with estimates based on dose estimates by the UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation and dose-effect estimates by the US National Academies.