Explaining transgender policy change: Policy momentum in Canada and Australia

Western democracies are experiencing a widespread shift towards greater recognition of transgender rights in public policy, yet the timing of change differs across states. To explain this variation, I present a novel theoretical framework called “policy momentum.” Unlike existing work on policy diffusion, which typically emphasizes domestic or international processes, I theorize how the combined pressure from each level creates the conditions for policy change to occur. Empirically, I contrast the creation of national human rights policies to protect transgender individuals in Canada (2017) and Australia (2013). Using process-tracing and within-case analyses, and drawing on elite interviews, primary documents, and Hansard records, I demonstrate the decisive interaction of subnational legislative changes with an emerging global norm to produce transgender policy change. This paper thus contributes to our understanding of LGBTQ+ public policy while also providing a framework for explaining the conditions for cross-national policy change more broadly.