研究采用创新作为适应气候变化战略的决定因素

S. Rahmani, Masoud Yazdanpanah
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摘要

背景与目标:新技术是农村家庭用于应对气候变化影响的适应战略的重要组成部分。本调查旨在探讨法尔斯省马马萨尼县灌溉系统农户对适应创新方法接受程度的影响因素。方法:采用问卷调查法进行应用研究。本研究的统计人口为4033名农民,其中351名农民是根据Krejcie和Morgan的表格,采用随机配额抽样的方法选取的。通过基于概念模型的问卷调查收集数据。问卷的面效度经专家小组确认,Cronbach α信度系数为良好至优良信度,信度范围为0.70-0.78。结果:logistic回归结果显示,农户规模、节水意愿、水资源短缺社会风险感知等变量与种植新型抗旱作物存在显著正相关。这些变量可以解释22%的农民在缺水条件下的适应选择。农场规模和节水意愿这两个变量是采用新种植作为适应措施的重要决定因素。这些变量预测了23%的接受创新对适应的方差。水资源短缺的环境风险感知、风险承担和对水资源短缺后果的认识对适应有显著影响。这些预测33%的方差。结论:农户对水资源保护和信息保护的意愿较高,对水资源短缺的风险认知和后果也较高。
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Investigating the Determinants of Adoption of Innovation as a Strategy to Adaptation to Climate Change
Background & objectives: New technologies are an important part of adaptation strategies used by rural households to cope with climate change impacts. The purpose of this survey is to examine the factors affecting on acceptance of adaptation innovation methods among farmers in irrigated farming systems of Mamassani County of Fars province. Methods: This study was an applied research conducted with survey method. The statistical population of this study was 4033 farmers, among them 351 farmers was selected based on the Krejcie and Morgan's table and using a random-quota sampling method. Data were collected through a questionnaire based on the conceptual model. The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts and Cronbach alpha reliability coefficients indicated good-to-excellent reliability in the range of 0.70-0.78. Results: The results of logistic regression showed that the variables of farm size and intention to water conservation and perception of social risks of water scarcity are positively and significantly related to planting new drought-resistant crop practices. These variables can explain the 22 % of farmers' adaptation choices in water scarcity condition. The two variables of farm size and the intention to water conservation are important determinants in the adoption of new cropping as an adaptation measure. These variables predicted 23% of variance of acceptance innovation to adaptation. The perception of environmental risk of water scarcity, risk taking and knowledge about consequences of water scarcity had significant effects on adaptation. These predicted 33% of variance Pressurized Irrigation System. Conclusion: According to the results, farmers have a high desire to protect water and information, risk perception and consequences of water scarcity are also high among them.
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