Causality in Comparative Policy Analysis: Introduction to a Special Issue of the JCPA

Abstract The problem raised by causality in comparative policy analysis is twofold. First, how can we be sure there is actually a causal relationship between two variables, factors or events? Second, what do we really know about the causal forces, the individual motivations and the institutions at work between the alleged explanandum and the explanans (and vice versa)? The answer to these questions depends on whether we intend to predict what can or will happen if the same cause is present at different points in time or space, or whether we are willing to explain a causal process linking a trigger (i.e. a cause, a factor or a determinant) to an outcome, a result or an effect. To contribute to the discussion, we build on a typology of models of causation, coined as “regularity” (if causality is about generalizations based on constant variations), “necessity” (if it is about causal powers at work in contingent situations), “ideal-type” (if it is about historical patterns or chains of events), and “social construction” (if it is about actors’ frames and values). Each model fulfills a different purpose when addressing causality. The article explains how these models work and command the selection and utilization of the methods. This introduction discusses the contribution to the discussion made by the four articles included in this special issue, which are organized by model of causation.