地质经济不确定条件下基于模型的多目标粒子群方法生产优化

IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.2516/ogst/2021039
Mohammad Mahdi Moshir Farahi, Mohammad Ahmadi, B. Dabir
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引用次数: 2

摘要

由于油藏地下模型的不完善和数据的不充分,油田注水过程的优化本身就存在一些不确定性。另一方面,油价波动带来的经济状况的不确定性使决策过程面临风险。处理地质和经济不确定性条件下的优化问题是十分必要的。在本研究中,利用基于pareto的多目标粒子群优化(MOPSO)方法来最大化短期和长期生产目标,对不确定性具有鲁棒性。对MOPSO算法进行了一些改进,包括在leader确定过程中加入一个变量,即拥挤距离,修正归档控制器,以及改变边界探索。这些修正导致了一个完整的Pareto前沿,在被调查的模型上具有足够的多样性,覆盖了整个解决方案空间。净现值(NPV)被认为是代表长期收益的第一个目标,而高度贴现的NPV(贴现率为25%)被认为是短期收益,因为经济不确定性风险随着时间的推移而增加。本文提出的优化方法已用于Egg基准模型上的水驱优化。地质不确定性用集合表示,包括100个模型实现。采用k-means聚类方法将实现减少到10个,以降低计算成本。帕累托锋面作为保守生产计划,通过鲁棒优化(RO)方法,通过最大化组合上的平均NPV得到。结果表明,通过比较它们的累积密度函数,k-means技术在减少的实现数量的集合上的优化与所有实现的集合结果一致。此外,考虑了10个石油价格函数来形成经济不确定性空间。当SNPV和LNPV优化时,考虑到油价情景的不确定性,Pareto前沿的生产情景对油价波动具有鲁棒性。在这两种情况下,利用LNPV和SNPV的强大Pareto前沿,可以保守地优化生产策略,并根据当前的油藏和经济条件进行更新。这种方法可以帮助决策者处理油藏管理中的意外情况。
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Model-based production optimization under geological and economic uncertainties using multi-objective particle swarm method
Optimization of the water-flooding process in the oilfields is inherently subject to several uncertainties arising from the imperfect reservoir subsurface model and inadequate data. On the other hand, the uncertainty of economic conditions due to oil price fluctuations puts the decision-making process at risk. It is essential to handle optimization problems under both geological and economic uncertainties. In this study, a Pareto-based Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) method has been utilized to maximize the short-term and long-term production goals, robust to uncertainties. Some modifications, including applying a variable in the procedure of leader determination, namely crowding distance, a corrected archive controller, and a changing boundary exploration, are performed on the MOPSO algorithm. These corrections led to a complete Pareto front with enough diversity on the investigated model, covering the entire solution space. Net Present Value (NPV) is considered the first goal that represents the long-term gains, while a highly discounted NPV (with a discount rate of 25%) has been considered short-term gains since economic uncertainty risk grows with time. The proposed optimization method has been used to optimize water flooding on the Egg benchmark model. Geological uncertainty is represented with ensembles, including 100 model realizations. The k-means clustering method is utilized to reduce the realizations to 10 to reduce the computing cost. The Pareto front is obtained from Robust Optimization (RO) by maximizing average NPV over the ensembles, as the conservative production plan. Results show that optimization over the ensemble of a reduced number of realizations by the k-means technique is consistent with all realizations’ ensembles results, comparing their cumulative density functions. Furthermore, 10 oil price functions have been considered to form the economic uncertainty space. When SNPV and LNPV are optimized, considering uncertainty in oil price scenarios, the Pareto front’s production scenarios are robust to oil price fluctuations. Using the robust Pareto front of LNPV versus SNPV in both cases, one can optimize production strategy conservatively and update it according to the current reservoir and economic conditions. This approach can help a decision-maker to handle unexpected situations in reservoir management.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
2.7 months
期刊介绍: OGST - Revue d''IFP Energies nouvelles is a journal concerning all disciplines and fields relevant to exploration, production, refining, petrochemicals, and the use and economics of petroleum, natural gas, and other sources of energy, in particular alternative energies with in view of the energy transition. OGST - Revue d''IFP Energies nouvelles has an Editorial Committee made up of 15 leading European personalities from universities and from industry, and is indexed in the major international bibliographical databases. The journal publishes review articles, in English or in French, and topical issues, giving an overview of the contributions of complementary disciplines in tackling contemporary problems. Each article includes a detailed abstract in English. However, a French translation of the summaries can be provided to readers on request. Summaries of all papers published in the revue from 1974 can be consulted on this site. Over 1 000 papers that have been published since 1997 are freely available in full text form (as pdf files). Currently, over 10 000 downloads are recorded per month. Researchers in the above fields are invited to submit an article. Rigorous selection of the articles is ensured by a review process that involves IFPEN and external experts as well as the members of the editorial committee. It is preferable to submit the articles in English, either as independent papers or in association with one of the upcoming topical issues.
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