LTV政策的总体和分布影响:来自中国微观数据的证据

Kaiji Chen, Qing Wang, Tong Xu, T. Zha
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引用次数: 7

摘要

使用三个独特的微观数据集,我们发现中国对非一手住房的LTV政策的意外和前所未有的放松推动了2014年第四季度至2016年第三季度的整个抵押贷款热潮。抵押贷款的扩张不成比例地增加了向受过高等教育的中年房主发放抵押贷款的比例,而他们的消费增长却持续下降。为了解释这些实证发现,我们开发了一个定量模型,并确定房主将其主要住房作为投机性住房投资的交易是LTV政策变化对抵押贷款市场产生总体和分配影响的关键渠道。我们的跨城市证据为这一渠道提供了实证支持。
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Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
Using three unique micro datasets, we find that an unexpected and unprecedented loosening of China's LTV policy for non-primary houses fueled the entire mortgage boom during 2014Q4-2016Q3. The mortgage expansion disproportionately increased the share of mortgages to middle-aged homeowners with high education, while their consumption growth declined persistently. To interpret these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative model and identify that homeowners' trade-up of their primary homes as speculative housing investment is a key channel for a change in LTV policy to exert aggregate and distributional impacts on mortgage markets. Our cross-city evidence provides empirical support for this channel.
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