利用SDSM模态预测伊拉克年累积降雨量

Ali Mokhles Abdul-Jabbar, A. K. Abdulkareem
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引用次数: 4

摘要

雨被认为是最重要的气候要素之一。它必须得到特别的重视,因为它是世界上任何一种生命都不可能存在的基础。该研究的目的是使用统计模型降尺度(SDSM),这是一种通用模型,用于将大尺度输出转换为可用于研究局部尺度(伊拉克)影响的小尺度。预测未来几年的累积年降雨量,伊拉克有一些研究使用了该模型。利用伊拉克气象组织和地震学(IMOS) 2007-2016年研究地区(巴格达、卡尔巴拉、Al-Hay、摩苏尔、基尔库克、哈纳钦、巴士拉、纳西里耶、迪瓦尼亚和鲁特巴)的日降雨量数据,利用SDSM估算降雨量。利用该模型对降雨值进行估计,并与实际值进行比较,结果非常接近。利用该模型对(2017-2021)年累积降雨量进行预测,结果表明,降水以北部地区(3821)mm最多,西部地区最少(665)mm,中部地区(1848)mm,南部地区(1828)mm。
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Predicted the Cumulative Annual Rainfall in Iraq Using SDSM Modal
Rain is deemed one of the most important climate elements. It must be given special attention for being the basis without which no kind of life in the world can be there. the aim of the study is to use Statistical models Downscaling (SDSM) where it is a universal model used to converting large scale output into a small scale that can be used to study impact at the local scale (Iraq)' to Forecasting cumulative annual rainfall for the next years where there are a few studies used this model in Iraq. Daily rainfall data from the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) (2007-2016) for the study areas (Baghdad, Karbala, Al-Hay, Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Basra, Nasiriya, Diwaniya, and Rutba) is used to estimate the amount of rainfall by using SDSM. The model was used to estimate the rain values and then the results were compared with the actual values, the results were very close to each other. Also, the model used to predict the cumulative annual rainfall from (2017-2021), The result shows that the bigger amount of rainfall in the north region with (3821) mm and the lowest amount in the west region (665) mm, while middle region (1848) mm and south region (1828) mm.
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