通过扩展核威慑理论的棱镜,美国对朝鲜的政策

M. Skrypnyk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国对朝鲜的政策受到核不扩散政策和向日本和韩国提供安全保障的影响。这些保证有双重目的。一方面,它们是阻止朝鲜侵略该地区其他国家的工具,尤其是美国的盟友——日本和韩国。另一方面,这些保证也是对伊朗放弃获得核武库政策的保证。这篇文章的目的是通过延伸核威慑理论的棱镜,分析美国对北韩政策的基础及其对盟国关系的影响。有人指出,威慑的有效性在于确信愿意作出适当的反应。与此同时,延伸威慑的说服力较低,因为保护国必须对来自盟友的威胁做出反应,也就是说,在自己的国界之外。对冷战时期和现代安全环境下延伸威慑的相关性进行反思的学者之间存在争议。人们注意到,新威胁的出现和越来越多的冲突(如果有的话)改变了扩大威慑的性质,但这并没有减少美国的“核保护伞”对《不扩散条约》和该区域安全的重要性。作者分析了美国对韩国和日本提供安全保障的原因。尤其值得关注的是北韩的侵略政策和核导弹开发的进展。随着美国从日本和韩国撤军,平壤的破坏性政策加剧了美国盟友的危险意识,并引发了有关发展自己核计划的谈判。这种情况威胁到《不扩散核武器条约》制度和国际稳定,以及美国在该地区的战略利益。因此,在解决北韩核导问题的过程中,美国正在加强与盟国的合作,并正式重申其坚定不移的安全和防御承诺,这将恢复各方之间的信任,并在总体上增强延伸威慑的作用。
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US POLICY TOWARDS NORTH KOREA THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE THEORY OF EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
The US policy towards North Korea is shaped by the nuclear non-proliferation policy and security guarantees provided to Japan and the Republic of Korea. These guarantees have a dual purpose. On the one hand, they are a tool to deter the DPRK from aggression against other countries in the region and, above all, US allies – Japan and South Korea. On the other hand, these guarantees are also an assurance of the latter's abandonment of the policy of acquiring a nuclear arsenal. The aim of the article is to analyze the foundations of Washington's policy towards Pyongyang and its influence on relations with allies through the prism of the theory of extended nuclear deterrence. It is stated that the effectiveness of deterrence consists of the conviction of the willingness to react with an adequate response. At the same time, the persuasiveness of extended deterrence is lower, as the protecting state must respond to threats from the ally that is to say outside its own national borders. There is controversy among scholars who reflect on the relevance of extended deterrence during the Cold War and in the modern security environment. It is noted that the emergence of new threats and an increasing number of conflicts, if any, change the nature of extended deterrence, but this does not diminish the importance of the "nuclear umbrella" of the United States for both the NPT and the security of the region. The author analyzes the reasons for the United States' security guarantees for South Korea and Japan. Particular attention is paid to the factor of North Korea's aggressive policy and its progress in the development of the nuclear missile program. With the reduction and withdrawal of US troops from Japan and South Korea, Pyongyang's destructive policies have exacerbated the American allies' sense of danger and provoked talks about developing their own nuclear programs. This scenario threatened the NPT regime and international stability, as well as US strategic interests in the region. Therefore, Washington is stepping up cooperation with its allies in the process of resolving the problem of North Korea's nuclear missile program and is officially reaffirming its unwavering security and defense commitments, which should restore trust between the parties and increase the role of extended deterrence in general.
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来源期刊
International Journal of Civic, Political, and Community Studies
International Journal of Civic, Political, and Community Studies Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
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