应用于Forrester世界模型的系统分析技术-第三部分:相关性和谱分析

Michael E. Austin, Thomas R. Cottler
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引用次数: 0

摘要

相关性分析揭示了世界体系的一些固有属性。自然资源和资本投资构成一个独立的子系统,不受其他状态变量的影响。人口是稳定的,除非资本投资迫使人口增长,否则不会增长。光谱分析并没有特别揭示,除了在f = ƒ0附近有一个很大的振幅。这表明了一个非常惯性的系统,需要更多的研究来帮助理解世界行为的长期变化。
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System analysis techniques applied to the Forrester world model—Part III: Correlation and spectral analysis

Correlation analysis reveals some of the inherent properties of the world system. Natural resources and capital investment form an independent subsystem and are unaffected by other state variables. Population is stable and will not increase unless forced to do so by capital investment. Spectral analysis is not particularly revealing except for the fact that a large amplitude occurs around ƒ = ƒ0. This indicates a very inertial system and the need for more study to aid in understanding long-term changes in world behavior.

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