评估科罗拉多州落基山区野火调度系统的决策框架

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI:10.1287/deca.2022.0047
Erin J. Belval, Matthew P. Thompson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,科罗拉多州经历了极端的野火事件,使森林和流域健康退化,并摧毁了人类社区。随着人类发展的扩大和气候的变化,野火活动可能会增加,野火管理机构将面临维持其提供的景观和生态系统服务的挑战。美国联邦、州和地方一级的多机构野火响应的一个关键要素是机构间调度系统,该系统有助于在野火事件中订购、动员和跟踪消防资源,这一角色在未来的重要性和工作量都可能增加。考虑到日益增长的需求,有必要考虑如何提高目前科罗拉多州调度系统的效率、容量和能力。为此,落基山脉协调小组(RMCG)和落基山脉地区消防执行委员会(RMA-FEC)开始着手调整调度系统,首先探索改变调度区域的边界和全州调度中心的数量和位置。在这里,我们描述了与RMCG和RMA-FEC的多年研究管理伙伴关系,以应用结构化的决策过程来指导这一重组工作。我们重点介绍了参与性过程中使用的步骤,该过程涉及当地决策者,包括反复修改和澄清问题陈述,制定目标并将其转化为可测量的属性,建立多目标优化模型以生成和比较备选方案,并传达最终被采用的推荐备选方案。最后,我们讨论了从我们的经验中获得的见解,并强调了在美国其他地方开展类似工作以支持有效野火管理的机会。历史:本文已被《决策分析》特刊《决策分析促进环境可持续性》接受。资助:这项研究得到了美国农业部林业局的支持。
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A Decision Framework for Evaluating the Rocky Mountain Area Wildfire Dispatching System in Colorado
In recent years, the state of Colorado has experienced extreme wildfire events that have degraded forest and watershed health and devastated human communities. With expanding human development and a changing climate, wildfire activity is likely to increase, and wildfire management agencies will be challenged to sustain landscapes and the ecosystem services they provide. A critical element of the United States’ federal-, state-, and local-level multiagency wildfire response is the interagency dispatching system, which facilitates the ordering, mobilization, and tracking of firefighting resources to and from wildfire incidents—a role that is likely to increase in both importance and workload in the future. Given increasing demands, it is worth considering ways to improve efficiencies, capacity, and capability within the current Colorado dispatching system. With this, the Rocky Mountain Coordinating Group (RMCG) and the Rocky Mountain Area Fire Executive Council (RMA-FEC) sought to reorganize the dispatching system, beginning with exploration of changes to dispatching zone boundaries and the number and location of dispatching centers throughout the state. Here we describe a multiyear research–management partnership with the RMCG and RMA-FEC to apply a structured decision-making process to guide this reorganization effort. We highlight the steps used in a participatory process that involved local decision makers and included iteratively revising and clarifying the problem statement, developing objectives and translating them into measurable attributes, building a multiobjective optimization model to generate and compare alternatives, and communicating a recommended alternative that was ultimately adopted. To conclude, we discuss insights from our experience and highlight opportunities for similar work to support efficient wildfire management elsewhere in the United States. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Decision Analysis to Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.
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Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
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