分析印度经济增长、温室气体排放和能源消耗之间的关系

Asim Hasan, R. Usmani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

不断上升的温室气体排放是当前的一个重要问题。印度的温室气体排放量在全球排名第三。该国不断上升的能源需求为排放量的进一步增加打开了大门。最近的研究表明,能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间有着密切的联系。本研究旨在实证检验上述相互依赖关系。采用协整检验和多元向量误差修正模型(VECM)进行分析,采用格兰杰因果检验确定因果关系的方向。采用1971-2011年的时间序列数据进行分析。研究结果证实了变量之间的强协整性。因果关系结果表明,经济增长对碳排放产生因果影响,能源消费对经济增长产生因果影响,碳排放对经济增长产生因果影响。在此基础上,提出了有利于环境和社会的以节约能源和逐步用可再生能源替代化石燃料为重点的政策。
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Analysing Nexus between Economic Growth, GHG Emissions, and Energy Consumption for India
Rising greenhouse gas emissions is an important issue of the current time. India’s massive greenhouse gas emissions is ranked third globally. The escalating energy demand in the country has opened the gateway for further increase in emissions. Recent studies suggest strong nexus between energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions. This study has the objective to empirically test the aforementioned interdependencies. The co-integration test and multivariate vector error correction model (VECM) are used for the analysis and the Granger Causality test is used to establish the direction of causality. The time-series data for the period of 1971–2011 is used for the analysis. The results of the study confirm strong co-integration between variables. The causality results show that economic growth exerts a causal influence on carbon emissions, energy consumption exerts a causal influence on economic growth, and carbon emissions exert a causal influence on economic growth. Based on the results, the study suggests a policy that focuses on energy conservation and gradual replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, which would be beneficial for the environment and the society.
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