Chinese Puzzle: A Classical Liberal Approach to Post-pandemic Relations with China

COVID-19 is provoking a major reorientation of American and European foreign policy. At the heart of this is their changing relationship with China. The pandemic has given rise to fears of a new Cold War, which are based on out-of-date assumptions and a misunderstanding of China’s motivations. Unlike the USSR, it neither seeks hegemony, nor aspires to evangelise and export its political and economic system. It acts out of self-interest and seeks to become both a model nation for developing countries to emulate and the dominant rule-setter in the international trade and financial system. The strategy of constructive engagement, or liberal internationalism, is no longer working, but a more confrontational relationship with China could be economically costly and politically dangerous. There is an alternative to simple confrontation and military competition that could promote the goal of a freer, more peaceful world more effectively. The West may have to restrain sensitive trade and respond robustly to the Chinese government’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and against Asian neighbours. However, this could be supplemented with a programme of engagement between private individuals, organisations, and firms in free societies with their Chinese counterparts. Organising more contact at a civil society level could lead to social and cultural changes that China’s current rulers will have to accept or find much less easy to manage.