If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. Our parental survey during the second German school lockdown provides new measures of socio-emotional development and panel evidence on how students’ time use and educational inputs adapted over time. Children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly one year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. Parental assessments of children’s socio-emotional development are mixed. Discussing our findings in light of the emerging literature on substantial achievement losses, we conclude that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently increase inequality and reduce skill development, lifetime income, and economic growth.
{"title":"The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education","authors":"Katharina Werner, Ludger Woessmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3945280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3945280","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. Our parental survey during the second German school lockdown provides new measures of socio-emotional development and panel evidence on how students’ time use and educational inputs adapted over time. Children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly one year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. Parental assessments of children’s socio-emotional development are mixed. Discussing our findings in light of the emerging literature on substantial achievement losses, we conclude that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently increase inequality and reduce skill development, lifetime income, and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89889081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to study the effects of childcare and household duties on sell-side analysts. The richness of this setting allows us to compare female and male analysts while requiring them to perform the same tasks. We find that female analysts' forecast accuracy declined more than male analysts, especially when schools were closed and among analysts who were more likely to have young children, inexperienced, were likely busier before the pandemic, and lived in southern states. Female analysts also reduced the timeliness of their forecasts and resorted to more heuristic forecasts. The stock market was aware of this and became less responsive to female analysts' forecasts. However, female analysts did not reduce their coverage or updating frequency relative to male analysts. We also find the above widening gender gap was temporary and became statistically insignificant by May/June 2020. Overall, our results show that the pandemic impacted female analysts more than males through the quality of their forecasts but not the quantity.
{"title":"The Gender Effects of COVID-19 on Equity Analysts","authors":"F. Li, Baolian Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3857376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3857376","url":null,"abstract":"We use the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to study the effects of childcare and household duties on sell-side analysts. The richness of this setting allows us to compare female and male analysts while requiring them to perform the same tasks. We find that female analysts' forecast accuracy declined more than male analysts, especially when schools were closed and among analysts who were more likely to have young children, inexperienced, were likely busier before the pandemic, and lived in southern states. Female analysts also reduced the timeliness of their forecasts and resorted to more heuristic forecasts. The stock market was aware of this and became less responsive to female analysts' forecasts. However, female analysts did not reduce their coverage or updating frequency relative to male analysts. We also find the above widening gender gap was temporary and became statistically insignificant by May/June 2020. Overall, our results show that the pandemic impacted female analysts more than males through the quality of their forecasts but not the quantity.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87369318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we quantify impacts on consumption expenditure and patterns following India’s initial sudden lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the gradual relaxation that followed. We use household survey data from a representative Indian state, Punjab. We separate the effects on rural versus urban households, and by whether households were female-headed, or had daily laborers. While the urban population cut back expenditure across all categories, rural households shifted toward basic commodities and cut back more on other expenditure. Rural households that included daily-wage laborers were the most severely affected.
{"title":"Impacts of the COVID Lockdown on Consumption: Household Data from India","authors":"Anirban Sanyal, Nirvikar Singh, Rolly Kapoor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3840563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3840563","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we quantify impacts on consumption expenditure and patterns following India’s initial sudden lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the gradual relaxation that followed. We use household survey data from a representative Indian state, Punjab. We separate the effects on rural versus urban households, and by whether households were female-headed, or had daily laborers. While the urban population cut back expenditure across all categories, rural households shifted toward basic commodities and cut back more on other expenditure. Rural households that included daily-wage laborers were the most severely affected.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87086939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
South Korea has been experiencing a very low total fertility rate around 1.2 over the last two decades. A serious concern of the Korean government about low fertility is demonstrated by its billions-dollars worth spending in recent years. In this paper, we aim to understand why the birth rate is so low in Korea and to assess whether there is a reason for the government to be concerned. We ask what, if anything, could and should be done about the low fertility rate. To do so, we propose status externalities as a new reason for inefficiently low fertility. In our model with endogenous fertility, parents care about the education of their children relative to other parent’s children. We find that the equilibrium is characterized by over-investment in education and under-investment in fertility, relative to the first best. We calibrate the model to Korean data to quantify the role of the status externality. We find that without it fertility would be 17% higher. We also find the externality plays a large role in explaining the fertility-income relationship, which is positive in Korea, in contrast to most other countries. We conduct several policy experiment and find that taxing education would not be desirable in welfare terms, even though it reduces the over-investment. Similarly, pronatal transfers do increase the fertility rate but are also not welfare improving. We conclude that more subtle policies are needed to rectify the friction introduced through status concerns.
{"title":"Status Externalities in Education and Low Birth Rates in Korea","authors":"Seongeun Kim, M. Tertilt, Minchul Yum","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3866660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3866660","url":null,"abstract":"South Korea has been experiencing a very low total fertility rate around 1.2 over the last two decades. A serious concern of the Korean government about low fertility is demonstrated by its billions-dollars worth spending in recent years. In this paper, we aim to understand why the birth rate is so low in Korea and to assess whether there is a reason for the government to be concerned. We ask what, if anything, could and should be done about the low fertility rate. To do so, we propose status externalities as a new reason for inefficiently low fertility. In our model with endogenous fertility, parents care about the education of their children relative to other parent’s children. We find that the equilibrium is characterized by over-investment in education and under-investment in fertility, relative to the first best. We calibrate the model to Korean data to quantify the role of the status externality. We find that without it fertility would be 17% higher. We also find the externality plays a large role in explaining the fertility-income relationship, which is positive in Korea, in contrast to most other countries. We conduct several policy experiment and find that taxing education would not be desirable in welfare terms, even though it reduces the over-investment. Similarly, pronatal transfers do increase the fertility rate but are also not welfare improving. We conclude that more subtle policies are needed to rectify the friction introduced through status concerns.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76150124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the hedging and safe-haven characteristics between four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and three major US stock market indices. The metal markets are known for hedging and safety characteristics during financial distress. The paper sheds new insights into the hedging and safe-haven ability of the precious metals under extreme stock market volatility conditions caused by the COVID-19 by drawing empirical estimates using two different copula approaches. The results show that gold outperforms all other precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium in hedging abilities under extreme stock market conditions. Likewise, gold remains a safe-haven asset both in calm and turbulent periods, and silver possibly remains the next best alternative, albeit as a weak safe-haven asset.
{"title":"Did Precious Metals Serve as Hedge and Safe-Haven Alternatives to Equity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Insights Using a Copula-Based Approach","authors":"A. Banerjee, H. Pradhan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3934171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3934171","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the hedging and safe-haven characteristics between four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and three major US stock market indices. The metal markets are known for hedging and safety characteristics during financial distress. The paper sheds new insights into the hedging and safe-haven ability of the precious metals under extreme stock market volatility conditions caused by the COVID-19 by drawing empirical estimates using two different copula approaches. The results show that gold outperforms all other precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium in hedging abilities under extreme stock market conditions. Likewise, gold remains a safe-haven asset both in calm and turbulent periods, and silver possibly remains the next best alternative, albeit as a weak safe-haven asset.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85543333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Policy recommendations Fiscal and monetary policies should remain expansionary to ensure that the nascent labour market recovery continues, allowing a quick recovery to pre-crisis employment levels. Fiscal policy should focus on pressing short-term needs, but also on supporting the EU’s transition to tackle challenges of the future, including the climate crisis and digitalisation. Policymakers need to take into account the pandemic’s divergent employment effects across industries. Employment-support schemes must be kept in place for those industries that are still suffering, and must be quickly re-activated for other areas of the economy in the case of renewed lockdowns in the autumn. This is crucial in order to minimise as much as possible the permanent labour market scarring that the pandemic will cause. Policymakers need to put particular emphasis on younger and low-skilled workers, as well as those in heavily affected industries and regions. If the pandemic has caused a permanent, structural shift in the nature of work and demand for particular skills, active labour market policies must be enacted to support the transition. Workers lacking digital skills or those living in areas with a high reliance on tourism are likely to be particularly exposed. It is of vital importance that the social security system, rather than workers themselves, bears the brunt of this transition. Long-term unemployment must be minimised as much as possible. The longer workers spend without a job, the harder it will be to reintegrate them back into the labour market.
{"title":"(Post-)pandemic Employment Dynamics in a Comparative Perspective","authors":"Stefan Jestl, Robert Stehrer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3931219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3931219","url":null,"abstract":"Policy recommendations Fiscal and monetary policies should remain expansionary to ensure that the nascent labour market recovery continues, allowing a quick recovery to pre-crisis employment levels. Fiscal policy should focus on pressing short-term needs, but also on supporting the EU’s transition to tackle challenges of the future, including the climate crisis and digitalisation. Policymakers need to take into account the pandemic’s divergent employment effects across industries. Employment-support schemes must be kept in place for those industries that are still suffering, and must be quickly re-activated for other areas of the economy in the case of renewed lockdowns in the autumn. This is crucial in order to minimise as much as possible the permanent labour market scarring that the pandemic will cause. Policymakers need to put particular emphasis on younger and low-skilled workers, as well as those in heavily affected industries and regions. If the pandemic has caused a permanent, structural shift in the nature of work and demand for particular skills, active labour market policies must be enacted to support the transition. Workers lacking digital skills or those living in areas with a high reliance on tourism are likely to be particularly exposed. It is of vital importance that the social security system, rather than workers themselves, bears the brunt of this transition. Long-term unemployment must be minimised as much as possible. The longer workers spend without a job, the harder it will be to reintegrate them back into the labour market.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73686878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The magnitude of the second one wave of India’s coronavirus surge became an increasing number of clear to the world, U.S. policymakers soon started to comprehend the strategic implications of India’s national trauma.U.S. President and his top officials publicly pledged their commitments to ship medical supplies, which include oxygen, vaccine materials, and therapeutics to India, while looking for additional approaches to deal with India’s crisis.COVID-19 already inflicted a crushing blow to India’s economy closing 12 months. A countrywide lockdown instituted via prime Minister Narendra Modi at the early levels of the worldwide pandemic was meant to alleviate the stresses on Indian’s insufficient healthcare system, however it also brought a 24 percentage contraction in the economy and led millions of migrant day workers to flee India’s towns for lack of work. thru the late fall and wintry weather, it seemed that by some means India might break out the worst of the pandemic, but that hope has now been dashed by a devastating combination of new viral strains and inadequate public health preparations. India now faces this wave of the virus exhausted and depleted.China–India relations, also referred to as Sino–Indo relations or Indian–chinese relations, refers back to the bilateral relationship between the humans's Republic of China and the Rebublic of India. despite the fact that the relationship has been cordial, there were border disputes. The current relationship started out in 1950 whilst India turned into many of the first countries to end formal ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and understand the human beings's Republic of China because the valid government of Mainland China. China and India are the two of the principal regional powers in Asia, and are two of the most populous countries and quickest growing primary economies in the global. boom in diplomatic and financial influence has increased the importance of their bilateral courting.
{"title":"The Strategic Consequences of India’s COVID-19 Crisis on India-China Trade after Galwan Skirmish","authors":"D. Kumari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3929861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3929861","url":null,"abstract":"The magnitude of the second one wave of India’s coronavirus surge became an increasing number of clear to the world, U.S. policymakers soon started to comprehend the strategic implications of India’s national trauma.U.S. President and his top officials publicly pledged their commitments to ship medical supplies, which include oxygen, vaccine materials, and therapeutics to India, while looking for additional approaches to deal with India’s crisis.COVID-19 already inflicted a crushing blow to India’s economy closing 12 months. A countrywide lockdown instituted via prime Minister Narendra Modi at the early levels of the worldwide pandemic was meant to alleviate the stresses on Indian’s insufficient healthcare system, however it also brought a 24 percentage contraction in the economy and led millions of migrant day workers to flee India’s towns for lack of work. thru the late fall and wintry weather, it seemed that by some means India might break out the worst of the pandemic, but that hope has now been dashed by a devastating combination of new viral strains and inadequate public health preparations. India now faces this wave of the virus exhausted and depleted.China–India relations, also referred to as Sino–Indo relations or Indian–chinese relations, refers back to the bilateral relationship between the humans's Republic of China and the Rebublic of India. despite the fact that the relationship has been cordial, there were border disputes. The current relationship started out in 1950 whilst India turned into many of the first countries to end formal ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and understand the human beings's Republic of China because the valid government of Mainland China. China and India are the two of the principal regional powers in Asia, and are two of the most populous countries and quickest growing primary economies in the global. boom in diplomatic and financial influence has increased the importance of their bilateral courting.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86474448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze an unbalanced panel monthly predictions of nonfarm payroll (NFP) changes between January 2008 and December 2020 sourced from Bloomberg. Unsurprisingly, we find that prediction quality varies across economists and we reject the hypothesis of equal predictive ability. In an error decomposition, we find evidence of significantly biased forecasts. Participation rate in the survey is affecting this bias. We find that survey participants under-predict job losses in times of market turmoil while also under-predicting the recovery thereafter, especially during the COVID19 labor shock. For prediction of NFP changes, autoregressive models are outperformed by a deep learning long short-term memory network. However, the consensus forecast yields better forecasts than model-based approaches and are further improved by combining the forecasts of the best performing economists. The COVID19 labor shock is shown to have adverse effects on the prediction performance of economists. However, not all economists are affected equally.
{"title":"Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock","authors":"Tony Klein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3929635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3929635","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze an unbalanced panel monthly predictions of nonfarm payroll (NFP) changes between January 2008 and December 2020 sourced from Bloomberg. Unsurprisingly, we find that prediction quality varies across economists and we reject the hypothesis of equal predictive ability. In an error decomposition, we find evidence of significantly biased forecasts. Participation rate in the survey is affecting this bias. We find that survey participants under-predict job losses in times of market turmoil while also under-predicting the recovery thereafter, especially during the COVID19 labor shock. For prediction of NFP changes, autoregressive models are outperformed by a deep learning long short-term memory network. However, the consensus forecast yields better forecasts than model-based approaches and are further improved by combining the forecasts of the best performing economists. The COVID19 labor shock is shown to have adverse effects on the prediction performance of economists. However, not all economists are affected equally.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81710864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper proposes risk measures for bank solvency by accurately measuring the solvency risk components. These measures consider the minimum regulatory solvency levels and banks’ risk appetite level and risk profile. For this purpose, we used semi-nonparametric statistics to model stylized facts of the risk distribution, particularly the high-order moments of the Solvency Decline Rate, the Tier Decline Rate, and the Portfolio Growth Rate variables. Additionally, these risk measures can be used to measure the risk of regulatory intervention and to define policies that establish the minimum solvency levels required by banking regulators by estimating the Quantile Risk Metrics. As a case study, we collected data on the solvency indicators of the Colombian banking system, which adapts to the standards established by the Basel Committee. According to the results, the liquidity injection measures implemented in response to the needs generated by the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in the levels of the risk portfolio in the Colombian banking system, which exceeded the 99th percentile of the probability distribution of monthly portfolio value changes.
{"title":"Determining the Banking Solvency Risk in Times of COVID-19 through Gram-Charlier Expansions","authors":"Juan F. Rendón, Lina M. Cortés, Javier Perote","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928191","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes risk measures for bank solvency by accurately measuring the solvency risk components. These measures consider the minimum regulatory solvency levels and banks’ risk appetite level and risk profile. For this purpose, we used semi-nonparametric statistics to model stylized facts of the risk distribution, particularly the high-order moments of the Solvency Decline Rate, the Tier Decline Rate, and the Portfolio Growth Rate variables. Additionally, these risk measures can be used to measure the risk of regulatory intervention and to define policies that establish the minimum solvency levels required by banking regulators by estimating the Quantile Risk Metrics. As a case study, we collected data on the solvency indicators of the Colombian banking system, which adapts to the standards established by the Basel Committee. According to the results, the liquidity injection measures implemented in response to the needs generated by the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in the levels of the risk portfolio in the Colombian banking system, which exceeded the 99th percentile of the probability distribution of monthly portfolio value changes.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86531736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mariateresa Maggiolino, R. Morgan, Maria Lucia Passador
The purpose of this article is to examine the current situation of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the EU from a diachronic perspective, with a special focus on the regulatory and factual events relating to the Covid-19 pandemic. Although we agree with Cicero that "Historia vero testis temporum, lux veritatis, vita memoriae, magistra vitae, nuntia vetustatis", our reflections on the status of NPLs in Europe are necessarily more nuanced. History can serve as a powerful guide, but the greatest disruptive scenarios require a conscious and consistent adjustment by people and regulations. Specifically, they must seek to cope with unforeseen developments that differ from those faced in the past, requiring continued awareness and flexibility. To this end, it is necessary to proceed step by step and begin with a thorough review of the rationale and goals of NPL-related measures taken so far. First of all, it is necessary to examine and recall the critical role played by banks in the economy and how they are able to absorb losses up to a certain amount. It is equally important to note that they cannot cope with heavy losses, which often occur in situations where their ability to lend credit and their reputation on the market cannot shield them from the impact of both pathological NPL flows and the inadequacy of their NPL management structures. Meanwhile, it should also be recalled that the cause of the most recent NPL crisis was linked to the sub-prime crisis, which taught us that the hardest risk to foresee is the probability of default even by normally well-paying debtors. The current situation faced by EU Member States is filled with yet more uncertainty, but we are far better prepared now than we were then. The post-Covid era will benefit from the many safeguards which have already been implemented, including: the prohibition of profit distribution by banks recommended by the EBA; greater flexibility in the interpretation of financial statement criteria (IFRS) and the classification of NPLs; and some essential measures to streamline the functioning of the secondary market for selling or restructuring NPLs. Against this background, empirical evidence can show us which direction we are moving in. It shows that we should not to drop our guard, but rather keep a watchful eye on the situation and act promptly and swiftly if/when needed. More precisely, following the NPL regulatory framework developed by the EU and several nations in the mid-2010s, NPL ratios and the aggregate amount of NPLs consistently dropped between 2015 and the first quarter of 2021, with the one exception being the first quarter of 2021 which saw a slight uptick in the aggregate number of NPLs. Moreover, corporate and household debt levels across some of the more traditionally problematic financial markets in the EU remain relatively healthy, at least compared to 2013 levels. However, government debt-to-GDP levels have increased substantially (almost doubled) in 2020 compared to the mi
{"title":"The State-of-the-Art of NPLs in the Post COVID World: An Ongoing Concern for the Future","authors":"Mariateresa Maggiolino, R. Morgan, Maria Lucia Passador","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3931491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3931491","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to examine the current situation of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the EU from a diachronic perspective, with a special focus on the regulatory and factual events relating to the Covid-19 pandemic. Although we agree with Cicero that \"Historia vero testis temporum, lux veritatis, vita memoriae, magistra vitae, nuntia vetustatis\", our reflections on the status of NPLs in Europe are necessarily more nuanced. History can serve as a powerful guide, but the greatest disruptive scenarios require a conscious and consistent adjustment by people and regulations. Specifically, they must seek to cope with unforeseen developments that differ from those faced in the past, requiring continued awareness and flexibility. To this end, it is necessary to proceed step by step and begin with a thorough review of the rationale and goals of NPL-related measures taken so far. First of all, it is necessary to examine and recall the critical role played by banks in the economy and how they are able to absorb losses up to a certain amount. It is equally important to note that they cannot cope with heavy losses, which often occur in situations where their ability to lend credit and their reputation on the market cannot shield them from the impact of both pathological NPL flows and the inadequacy of their NPL management structures. Meanwhile, it should also be recalled that the cause of the most recent NPL crisis was linked to the sub-prime crisis, which taught us that the hardest risk to foresee is the probability of default even by normally well-paying debtors. The current situation faced by EU Member States is filled with yet more uncertainty, but we are far better prepared now than we were then. The post-Covid era will benefit from the many safeguards which have already been implemented, including: the prohibition of profit distribution by banks recommended by the EBA; greater flexibility in the interpretation of financial statement criteria (IFRS) and the classification of NPLs; and some essential measures to streamline the functioning of the secondary market for selling or restructuring NPLs. Against this background, empirical evidence can show us which direction we are moving in. It shows that we should not to drop our guard, but rather keep a watchful eye on the situation and act promptly and swiftly if/when needed. More precisely, following the NPL regulatory framework developed by the EU and several nations in the mid-2010s, NPL ratios and the aggregate amount of NPLs consistently dropped between 2015 and the first quarter of 2021, with the one exception being the first quarter of 2021 which saw a slight uptick in the aggregate number of NPLs. Moreover, corporate and household debt levels across some of the more traditionally problematic financial markets in the EU remain relatively healthy, at least compared to 2013 levels. However, government debt-to-GDP levels have increased substantially (almost doubled) in 2020 compared to the mi","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87464433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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