印度中部中央邦的降雨和疟疾模式

N. Singh, V. Sharma
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引用次数: 64

摘要

最近一些恶性疟原虫疟疾的爆发至少部分归因于El Niño南方涛动(ENSO)引起的降雨强度和持续时间的增加,这是一种周期性的气候现象。由于异常的强降雨需要时间才能转化为媒介蚊子的异常高密度,因此有人建议,近期降雨的数据可能用于预测与气候有关的疟疾流行。通过比较1986-2000年和1967-2000年期间印度中部曼德拉地区疟疾高发村庄邓加里亚(Dungaria)和整个曼德拉地区的疟疾发病率模式,以及同一地区和同一时期的降雨数据,探讨了这种可能性。不幸的是,没有观察到降雨和疟疾发病率之间的明确关系,尽管一个改善研究地区水资源的重大开发项目(导致当地村庄部分或全部被水淹没)可能掩盖了任何重大联系。在当前和其他流行病学背景下,预测哪些年份是疟疾流行的高风险年份或低风险年份的有用方法仍然是未来的一个目标。
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Patterns of rainfall and malaria in Madhya Pradesh, central India
Abstract Some recent outbreaks of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been attributed, at least in part, to increases in the intensity and duration of rainfall caused by the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), a periodic climatic phenomenon. Since it takes time for unusually heavy rainfall to translate into unusually high densities of the vector mosquitoes, it has been suggested that data on recent rainfall might be used to predict climate-related epidemics of malaria. This possibility was explored by comparing the patterns in the incidence of malaria in (1) Dungaria, a highly malarious village in the central-Indian district of Mandla, and (2) Mandla district as a whole, for the periods 1986-2000 and 1967-2000, respectively, with data on rainfall for the same areas and periods. Unfortunately, no clear relationship was observed between rainfall and malaria incidence, although a major development project to improve water resources in the study area (which resulted in local villages being partially or completely submerged in water) may have masked any significant association. A useful method for predicting which years are going to be high- or low-risk years for malaria epidemics, in the present and other epidemiological settings, remains a future goal.
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