混合预处理器的人工神经网络模型在河流流量预测中的性能评价

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS ACS Applied Bio Materials Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI:10.2166/aqua.2023.010
Sadegh Momeneh, Vahid Nourani
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引用次数: 2

摘要

水文过程的准确预测和水资源的可持续管理是不可避免的,特别是在干旱半干旱气候的低水位地区,防洪和水资源短缺危机对居民和各种结构都是一种限制。本研究采用不同的数据预处理技术来处理复杂数据,并从流时间序列中提取隐藏特征。接下来,将分解后的时间序列作为输入数据,输入到人工神经网络(ANN)模型中进行流量建模和预测。采用离散小波变换(DWT)、经验模态分解(EMD)、带自适应噪声的全系综经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)、逐次变分模态分解(SVMD)和多滤波平滑(MFS)预处理。将这些预处理器与人工神经网络模型混合使用,对日流量进行预测。总体而言,研究结果表明混合动力模型的性能优化分为两个基本步骤。第一步是选择一种合适的方法来利用模型的输入数据。第二步是使用适当的预处理器。总体而言,MFS-ANN模型在短期预测和SVMD-ANN模型在长期预测中均优于其他混合模型。
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Performance evaluation of artificial neural network model in hybrids with various preprocessors for river streamflow forecasting
Accurate forecasting of hydrological processes and sustainable management of water resources is inevitable, especially for flood control and water resource shortage crisis in low-water areas with an arid and semi-arid climate, which is a limitation for residents and various structures. The present study uses different data preprocessing techniques to deal with complex data and extract hidden features from the stream time series. In the next step, the decomposed time series were used, as input data, to the artificial neural network (ANN) model for streamflow modeling and forecasting. The preprocessors employed, including discrete wavelet transform (DWT), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD), and multi-filter of the smoothing (MFS). These preprocessors were used in hybrid with the ANN model to forecast the daily streamflow. In general, the results showed that the optimal performance of hybrid models has two basic steps. The first step is choosing a suitable approach to utilizing the input data to the model. The second step is to use the appropriate preprocessor. Overall, the results show that the MFS-ANN model in short-term forecasting and the SVMD-ANN model in long-term forecasting performed better than other hybrid models.
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来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
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