社会科学建模的人工智能方法

J. C. Vázquez, J. Castillo, Leticia E. Constable, Marina E. Cardenas, J. C. Vazquez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

从几十年前起,计算机科学就对社会科学做出了贡献:将人们联系起来,建立虚拟社区,在那里可以调查互动,开发统计分析工具,设计模型,允许对最多样化的类型进行分析和模拟,等等。在本文中,我们描述了一个人工神经网络来模拟风险、住房和健康问题的理论框架,称为DRVS(城市住房健康风险确定诊断方法),它使用了社区和环境健康的整体方法。该方法还暴露了家庭和社区的数字临床病史,为支持必要数据的获取而开发。该软件构成了一个确定当地社会指标的专家系统,为基础社会理论的定量验证过程提供支持,有利于DRVS在不同地区的迁移和应用。另一方面,与许多人工智能技术一样,它也有局限性:与明确的逻辑推理不同,人工神经网络像“黑匣子”一样工作,不解释它们是如何得到结果的;它们对训练数据的代表性有很强的依赖性,引入可能改善其结果和性能的新知识是困难的(新数据,增加或删除底层社会模型的决定因素,加权因素等)。本文还展示了一些关于如何处理已确定的约束的技术和思想。
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An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Modeling in Social Science
Computer Science has contributed to social sciences since decades ago: connecting people that build virtual communities where the interactions can be investigated, developing tools for statistically analytics, designing models that allow the analysis and simulation of the most diverse types, among many others. In this article, we describe an artificial neural network to model a theoretical framework for risk, housing, and health problematic, called DRVS (Diagnostic methodology for risk determination of urban housing for health), which uses a holistic approach for community and environmental health. The methodology also exposes digital clinic history for families and communities, developed to support the acquisition of necessary data. This software has advantages for the transference and application of the DRVS in different locations since it constitutes an expert system for the determination of local social indexes and supports the quantitative validation process for the underlying social theory. On the other hand, as many artificial intelligence techniques, it has constraints: unlike explicit logic inferences, artificial neural networks work as «black boxes», not explaining how they got the result; they have a strong dependency of the representativeness of training data and introducing new knowledge that may improve their results and performance is difficult (new data, addition or remotion of determining factors for the underlying social model, weighting factors, etc.). This article also shows some techniques and ideas on how to deal with the identified constraints.
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