俄罗斯地区儿童社会潜力模型:实验结果

A. Filipova, A. Vysotskaya
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摘要

文章介绍了“俄罗斯地区儿童社会潜力”系统的数学实验结果。在系统结构中分为三个子系统-“区域内儿童的繁殖”,“儿童健康”和“儿童教育”,每个子系统都定义了其目标因素(输出参数)。基础设施因素组(教育、卫生、文化和体育、运输)、社会经济、领土定居、人口和环境因素组被指定为控制系统的因素(输入参数)。本研究的目的是建立一个“俄罗斯地区儿童社会潜力”模型,并进行实验,以找到目标和控制因素的值的最佳比例。进行了三波实验。第一波是对6年来指标动态的分析。二是在目标因子的理想值固定的情况下,选取控制因子的最优值。第三波使我们能够根据前一波控制因素的选定最优值来计算目标因素的值。
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MODEL OF SOCIAL POTENTIAL OF CHILDHOOD IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS: THE RESULTS OF EXPERIMENTS
The article presents the results of mathematical experiments with the system «Social potential of childhood in the Russian regions». In the structure of system divided into three subsystems – the «Reproduction of children in the region», «Children’s health» and «Education of children», for each defined its target factor (output parameter). The groups of infrastructure factors (education, health, culture and sport, transport), socio-economic, territorial-settlement, demographic and en-vironmental factors are designated as the factors that control the system (input parameters). The aim of the study is to build a model îf «Social potential of childhood in the Russian regions», as well as to conduct experiments to find the optimal ratio of the values of target and control factors. Three waves of experiments were conducted. The first wave is related to the analysis of the dynam-ics of indicators for 6 years. The second – with the selection of optimal values of control factors at fixed ideal values of target factors. The third wave allowed us to calculate the values of the target factors based on the selected optimal values of the control factors of the previous wave.
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