失业保险福利对(自主)就业的影响:一枚硬币的两面?

Sebastian Camarero Garcia, Michelle Hansch
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摘要

尽管有一部分公司是由于失业而创建的,欧洲目前积极的劳动力市场政策经常补贴失业的个人开办自己的企业,但人们对失业保险(UI)慷慨对自营职业的作用知之甚少。通过使用西班牙的行政数据,包括迄今为止无法获得的关于自营职业的信息,我们利用改革驱动的失业救济金的外生削减来确定其对一般就业的因果影响,并将其分解为对自营职业和再就业的影响。利用2012年西班牙劳动力市场改革导致的失业保险福利计划的不连续性,我们估计了改革对(自我)就业的广泛边际和失业持续时间的因果影响。我们发现了外延边际的异质性效应:当求职率上升时,创业率下降。在不同的时间范围内,对自营职业的负面影响(35-50%)超过了对就业的积极影响(5-33%)。因此,省略自营职业作为反事实结果可能导致高估一般就业效应。我们的失业救济金持续时间弹性估计表明,减少失业救济金延长了个体过渡到自营职业的失业持续时间,但缩短了个体重新就业的失业时间。这些结果可能与UI系统的(最佳)设计有关。
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The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Benefits on (Self-) Employment: Two Sides of the Same Coin?
Although a relevant share of firms is created out of unemployment and current active labor market policies in Europe often subsidize unemployed individuals to start their own businesses, little is known about the role of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity for self-employment. By using Spanish administrative data including so far inaccessible information on self-employment, we exploit a reform-driven exogenous cut in UI benefits to identify its causal effect on general employment and decompose it into the effects on self-employment and re-employment. Exploiting a discontinuity in the UI benefit schedule which changed as a result of the 2012 Spanish labor market reform, we estimate the causal reform effects on the extensive margin of (self-)employment and on unemployment duration. We find heterogeneous effects on the extensive margin: while the job-finding rate increases, the startup rate decreases. Over different time horizons, the negative effect on self- employment (35-50%) outweighs the positive effect on employment (5-33%). Therefore, omitting self-employment as a counterfactual outcome might lead to overestimate general employment effects. Our UI benefit duration elasticity estimates indicate that reduced UI benefits extend unemployment duration for individuals transitioning into self-employment but shorten unemployment for individuals finding re-employment. These results might be relevant for the (optimal) design of UI systems.
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