We study the effect of age at arrival on immigrants' homeownership probability using a dataset representative of the population resident in the UK in 2014-2016. Age at arrival has previously been found to play a significant role in immigrants' life outcomes. But while most papers study certain age groups and a limited number of geographies, we observe immigrants of all ages at arrival and the full range of countries of birth. Consistent with the literature, we find no significant difference between immigrants arriving under the age of 18 and native Brits when it comes to owning a home in later life, controlling for other factors. However, immigrants exhibit significantly lower probabilities of being homeowners the later they enter the country, and this pattern holds for most regions of birth. Only those from South-East Asia and Pacific who immigrate at later stages in their lives are significantly more likely to own their homes than otherwise comparable people born in the UK, while non-UK, Western European immigrants are most similar to the UK-born. The differences between age groups even largely exist when we compare first-generation immigrants with second-generation immigrants, whom we deem to be a better comparison group from a cultural perspective.
{"title":"Age at Arrival and Immigrants' Housing Tenure: Evidence from the UK","authors":"Olayiwola Oladiran, C. Schmidt, Adesola Sunmoni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3950987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3950987","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effect of age at arrival on immigrants' homeownership probability using a dataset representative of the population resident in the UK in 2014-2016. Age at arrival has previously been found to play a significant role in immigrants' life outcomes. But while most papers study certain age groups and a limited number of geographies, we observe immigrants of all ages at arrival and the full range of countries of birth. Consistent with the literature, we find no significant difference between immigrants arriving under the age of 18 and native Brits when it comes to owning a home in later life, controlling for other factors. However, immigrants exhibit significantly lower probabilities of being homeowners the later they enter the country, and this pattern holds for most regions of birth. Only those from South-East Asia and Pacific who immigrate at later stages in their lives are significantly more likely to own their homes than otherwise comparable people born in the UK, while non-UK, Western European immigrants are most similar to the UK-born. The differences between age groups even largely exist when we compare first-generation immigrants with second-generation immigrants, whom we deem to be a better comparison group from a cultural perspective.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89936154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
US public state pension deficits are very large, accounting for 18.5% of an average state's GDP and up to 50% in Illinois. In principle, households should respond to this heavy future burden by increasing current savings, particularly in safe assets, since pension deficits are countercyclical. Comparing households residing on opposing sides of states' borders, I document that households in larger-deficit states save more, investing more in safe bank deposits and less in risky stocks. Specifically, households hold 0.70 dollars more in deposits and 0.35 dollars less in stocks for each additional dollar of pension deficit. This effect strengthened further following the implementation of new accounting standards in 2015 that made deficits more salient by requiring states to publicly disclose them. Exploiting staggered state pension reforms, I also find that households respond consistently when states reduce pension deficits; they shift savings from deposits to stocks. These reallocations spill over onto local economic activity: as households withdraw deposits following a pension reform, exposed local banks cut lending to local businesses, lowering employment and wages, especially in the non-tradable sector.
{"title":"The Impact of Public Pension Deficits on Households' Investment and Economic Activity","authors":"Jinyuan Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918170","url":null,"abstract":"US public state pension deficits are very large, accounting for 18.5% of an average state's GDP and up to 50% in Illinois. In principle, households should respond to this heavy future burden by increasing current savings, particularly in safe assets, since pension deficits are countercyclical. Comparing households residing on opposing sides of states' borders, I document that households in larger-deficit states save more, investing more in safe bank deposits and less in risky stocks. Specifically, households hold 0.70 dollars more in deposits and 0.35 dollars less in stocks for each additional dollar of pension deficit. This effect strengthened further following the implementation of new accounting standards in 2015 that made deficits more salient by requiring states to publicly disclose them. Exploiting staggered state pension reforms, I also find that households respond consistently when states reduce pension deficits; they shift savings from deposits to stocks. These reallocations spill over onto local economic activity: as households withdraw deposits following a pension reform, exposed local banks cut lending to local businesses, lowering employment and wages, especially in the non-tradable sector.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87823621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As the world approaches the halfway point to the target year of 2030 for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) approved in 2015, it is clear that poverty will be far from eradicated by then. Absolute poverty is concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and overwhelmingly in 12-15 countries where progress in poverty alleviation is largely insufficient to get even close to achieving SDG1. The absolute number of extremely poor people in SSA is increasing and by 2030 it will be larger than the entire population of the European Union. While inequality matters for poverty reduction, it is the inequality between rich and poor nations that stands out. It is crucial to analyse poverty and inequality in absolute numbers. Relative and scale-neutral concepts distort our understanding and shield those who do not want to share just a tiny fraction of their rich countries’ wealth with the world’s poorest people. SDG1 would be within reach if rich countries shared a tiny fraction of their income. However, OECD countries are increasingly using their official development assistance as finance to support their more pressing foreign and security policy objectives, especially limiting migration, which also promotes redistribution from rich to poor. Europe needs to realize that investing more in Africa is good economics and good for security. Building strong relations with African governments and collaborating in building and strengthening key national institutions are critical both for poverty reduction and promoting peace and security.
{"title":"Ending Poverty in All its Forms Everywhere","authors":"Johnny Flentø","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3916228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3916228","url":null,"abstract":"As the world approaches the halfway point to the target year of 2030 for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) approved in 2015, it is clear that poverty will be far from eradicated by then. Absolute poverty is concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and overwhelmingly in 12-15 countries where progress in poverty alleviation is largely insufficient to get even close to achieving SDG1. The absolute number of extremely poor people in SSA is increasing and by 2030 it will be larger than the entire population of the European Union. While inequality matters for poverty reduction, it is the inequality between rich and poor nations that stands out. It is crucial to analyse poverty and inequality in absolute numbers. Relative and scale-neutral concepts distort our understanding and shield those who do not want to share just a tiny fraction of their rich countries’ wealth with the world’s poorest people. SDG1 would be within reach if rich countries shared a tiny fraction of their income. However, OECD countries are increasingly using their official development assistance as finance to support their more pressing foreign and security policy objectives, especially limiting migration, which also promotes redistribution from rich to poor. Europe needs to realize that investing more in Africa is good economics and good for security. Building strong relations with African governments and collaborating in building and strengthening key national institutions are critical both for poverty reduction and promoting peace and security.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91523262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aleksandra Burdyak, E. Grishina, V. Lyashok, A. Makarentseva, T. Maleva, N. Mkrtchyan, Y. Florinskaya, R. Khasanova
The reduction in real disposable cash income was due to the economic difficulties caused by the proliferation of the coronavirus infection The shutdown of a host of organizations in spring 2020 and the decline in consumer demand, in the first place for non-food products and services, reported in Q2-4 2020 (retail sales turnover came to 84.0, 98.4 and 97.2%, respectively of the same period of 2019) resulted in the cut in household incomes. In 2020, the total value of cash incomes of the population went down by 3.0% in real terms against 2019, while the amount of remuneration of wages and salaries of employees decreased by merely 0.9% in real terms.
{"title":"Incomes and the Poverty Line of the Population","authors":"Aleksandra Burdyak, E. Grishina, V. Lyashok, A. Makarentseva, T. Maleva, N. Mkrtchyan, Y. Florinskaya, R. Khasanova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904870","url":null,"abstract":"The reduction in real disposable cash income was due to the economic difficulties caused by the proliferation of the coronavirus infection The shutdown of a host of organizations in spring 2020 and the decline in consumer demand, in the first place for non-food products and services, reported in Q2-4 2020 (retail sales turnover came to 84.0, 98.4 and 97.2%, respectively of the same period of 2019) resulted in the cut in household incomes. In 2020, the total value of cash incomes of the population went down by 3.0% in real terms against 2019, while the amount of remuneration of wages and salaries of employees decreased by merely 0.9% in real terms.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75294103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The past year in the Russian real estate market was unique. Some of the trends that emerged earlier have noticeably intensified (the decline in the developers’ profitability, the digitalization of technical and business processes, increase in size and consolidation of the industry as a response to the pre-bankruptcy state of a significant part of market participants, the expansion of state support for developers and its participation in the completion of many uncompleted projects). Other trends impact the spread of remote work format, migration from megacities, the systemic revival of the individual housing construction (IHC) segment as an alternative to apartment buildings, the easing of requirements for the level of income of borrowers and their reliability, the unprecedented expansion of state- subsidized mortgages - have only just begun to take shape.
{"title":"The housing market of Russian cities","authors":"A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904717","url":null,"abstract":"The past year in the Russian real estate market was unique. Some of the trends that emerged earlier have noticeably intensified (the decline in the developers’ profitability, the digitalization of technical and business processes, increase in size and consolidation of the industry as a response to the pre-bankruptcy state of a significant part of market participants, the expansion of state support for developers and its participation in the completion of many uncompleted projects). Other trends impact the spread of remote work format, migration from megacities, the systemic revival of the individual housing construction (IHC) segment as an alternative to apartment buildings, the easing of requirements for the level of income of borrowers and their reliability, the unprecedented expansion of state- subsidized mortgages - have only just begun to take shape.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79541278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christena F. Martin, R. Reeve, Ruth McCausland, E. Baldry, P. Burton, Rob White, Stuart D M Thomas
This research examined policies and programs relevant to the housing pathways of ex-prisoners with complex support needs in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, including what criminal justice costs and benefits result from current housing assistance settings.
{"title":"Exiting Prison with Complex Support Needs: The Role of Housing Assistance","authors":"Christena F. Martin, R. Reeve, Ruth McCausland, E. Baldry, P. Burton, Rob White, Stuart D M Thomas","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/rnk2c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/rnk2c","url":null,"abstract":"This research examined policies and programs relevant to the housing pathways of ex-prisoners with complex support needs in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, including what criminal justice costs and benefits result from current housing assistance settings.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72881980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Duff, N. Hill, Hazel Blunden, Kylie Valentine, Sean M. Randall, R. Scutella, G. Johnson
The project will examine the coordination between residential treatment and housing and social support services using international comparisons and linked administrative data followed by testing in the field. It aims to enhance transition planning and reduce the risk of housing instability for individuals leaving treatment for mental health and/or substance use problems.
{"title":"Leaving Rehab: Enhancing Transitions into Stable Housing","authors":"C. Duff, N. Hill, Hazel Blunden, Kylie Valentine, Sean M. Randall, R. Scutella, G. Johnson","doi":"10.18408/AHURI53211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18408/AHURI53211","url":null,"abstract":"The project will examine the coordination between residential treatment and housing and social support services using international comparisons and linked administrative data followed by testing in the field. It aims to enhance transition planning and reduce the risk of housing instability for individuals leaving treatment for mental health and/or substance use problems.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84458052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is well understood that even small differences in population can have a disproportionate impact on representation in the U.S. House of Representatives after a decennial census because of the peculiarities of rounding rules that require integer allocations. While the COVID-19 pandemic can be held responsible for accelerating the trend toward the increased use of mail-in balloting, and it affected the ability of the census to collect in-person information, here we call attention to an unanticipated effect of the pandemic on the electoral process that, as far as we are aware, has never previously been identified. By rerunning the apportionment numbers for all states under the assumption that deaths from COVID-19 prior to the start of the Census had not occurred, we show that New York’s congressional delegation would not have lost a seat. New York was the only state whose House seat allocation was affected by disproportionate COVID-19 deaths.
{"title":"The Unanticipated Effect of COVID-19 on House Apportionment","authors":"Jonathan R. Cervas, B. Grofman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3898284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3898284","url":null,"abstract":"It is well understood that even small differences in population can have a disproportionate impact on representation in the U.S. House of Representatives after a decennial census because of the peculiarities of rounding rules that require integer allocations. While the COVID-19 pandemic can be held responsible for accelerating the trend toward the increased use of mail-in balloting, and it affected the ability of the census to collect in-person information, here we call attention to an unanticipated effect of the pandemic on the electoral process that, as far as we are aware, has never previously been identified. By rerunning the apportionment numbers for all states under the assumption that deaths from COVID-19 prior to the start of the Census had not occurred, we show that New York’s congressional delegation would not have lost a seat. New York was the only state whose House seat allocation was affected by disproportionate COVID-19 deaths.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89557638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
English Abstract: We examine the predictability of real house price movements along with demographic shifts, using a long time series international panel data set that covers 17 advanced countries over the period of 1950-2015. Since demographic structures change slowly and housing markets adjust slowly to economic fundamentals, we conduct our analysis over forecast horizons of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. We find that (1) two most relevant demographic predictors for the future house price movements both over short- and long-horizon are the proportion of ages 70 and above in population of 20 years old and above and the proportion of ages 25-44; and (2) if samples are spanning over relatively short period in time, one can be misled about the house price predictability of demographic structures. These new results help to reconcile mixed evidence from the existing studies.
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 1950-2015년에 걸쳐 17 개 선진국을 포괄하는 장기 패널 자료를 사용하여 인구구조 변화가 미래 주택가격을 얼마나 예측하는지를 추정한다. 인구구조가비교적 천천히 변화하고 펀더멘털 변화에 대한 주택가격의 반응속도가 느릴 수 있는 점들을 고려하여 본 연구에서는 미래 주택가격 예측 기간을 1년, 2년, 5년, 10년으로 설정하고 각각 분석하였다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 단기와 장기 모두에서 미래 주택가격의 변동을 가장 잘 설명하는 두 개의 인구 변수는, 20세 이상 인구 중 70세 이상 인구가 차지하는 비율 및 25-44 세 인구가 차지하는 비율이다. 둘째, 이 같은 인구구조와 주택가격 사이의 관계는 기존 연구에서처럼 표본기간이 40년 전후로 비교적 짧은 경우 제대로 관찰되지 않는다. 이러한 결과들은 왜 기존 연구들이 서로 상충된 결과를 보고하거나 이론에 반하는 결과를 보고하는지를 이해하는데 도움을 준다.
{"title":"House Price Predictability and Demographic Structure: Evidence from a Long-horizon International Data (인구구조와 주택가격 예측: 장기 패널데이터를 이용한 실증분석)","authors":"Seong-Hoon Kim, Seongman Moon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3877108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3877108","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> We examine the predictability of real house price movements along with demographic shifts, using a long time series international panel data set that covers 17 advanced countries over the period of 1950-2015. Since demographic structures change slowly and housing markets adjust slowly to economic fundamentals, we conduct our analysis over forecast horizons of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. We find that (1) two most relevant demographic predictors for the future house price movements both over short- and long-horizon are the proportion of ages 70 and above in population of 20 years old and above and the proportion of ages 25-44; and (2) if samples are spanning over relatively short period in time, one can be misled about the house price predictability of demographic structures. These new results help to reconcile mixed evidence from the existing studies.<br><br><b>Korean Abstract:</b> 본 연구는 1950-2015년에 걸쳐 17 개 선진국을 포괄하는 장기 패널 자료를 사용하여 인구구조 변화가 미래 주택가격을 얼마나 예측하는지를 추정한다. 인구구조가비교적 천천히 변화하고 펀더멘털 변화에 대한 주택가격의 반응속도가 느릴 수 있는 점들을 고려하여 본 연구에서는 미래 주택가격 예측 기간을 1년, 2년, 5년, 10년으로 설정하고 각각 분석하였다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 단기와 장기 모두에서 미래 주택가격의 변동을 가장 잘 설명하는 두 개의 인구 변수는, 20세 이상 인구 중 70세 이상 인구가 차지하는 비율 및 25-44 세 인구가 차지하는 비율이다. 둘째, 이 같은 인구구조와 주택가격 사이의 관계는 기존 연구에서처럼 표본기간이 40년 전후로 비교적 짧은 경우 제대로 관찰되지 않는다. 이러한 결과들은 왜 기존 연구들이 서로 상충된 결과를 보고하거나 이론에 반하는 결과를 보고하는지를 이해하는데 도움을 준다.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75354269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Kishor, H. Marfatia, Gooan Nam, Majid Haghani Rizi
We examine the local demand channel hypothesis of the housing market that predicts a larger response of employment in the non-tradable sector to house price shocks than employment in the tradable sector using state-level monthly data from 1990:M1-2019:M12. Our results from a panel VAR model and out-of-sample forecasting analysis confirm a larger response of non-tradable employment to house price changes. In addition, we also find that unlike short-lived responses to shocks to income and building permits, house price shocks have a very persistent effect on employment. Our findings suggest that states with inelastic housing supply and more volatile house prices tend to have a bigger improvement in forecasting performance for non-tradable employment than for tradable employment.
{"title":"The Local Employment Effect of House Prices: Evidence from U.S. States","authors":"N. Kishor, H. Marfatia, Gooan Nam, Majid Haghani Rizi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3881493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3881493","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the local demand channel hypothesis of the housing market that predicts a larger response of employment in the non-tradable sector to house price shocks than employment in the tradable sector using state-level monthly data from 1990:M1-2019:M12. Our results from a panel VAR model and out-of-sample forecasting analysis confirm a larger response of non-tradable employment to house price changes. In addition, we also find that unlike short-lived responses to shocks to income and building permits, house price shocks have a very persistent effect on employment. Our findings suggest that states with inelastic housing supply and more volatile house prices tend to have a bigger improvement in forecasting performance for non-tradable employment than for tradable employment.","PeriodicalId":10619,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90384530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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