宏观经济的不确定性和土耳其的投资关系

P. Güney
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在文献中,有人建议,除了许多因素,如宏观经济和微观经济政策,金融机构和产权;宏观经济的不确定性正在影响投资决策。本文分析了实际汇率、通货膨胀和增长不确定性对发展中国家私人投资的影响;火鸡我们使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型来测量不确定性。然后,我们用界检验的方法研究了变量之间的长期关系。最后,我们采用误差修正模型来捕捉动态关系。根据我们的结果,宏观经济的不确定性对土耳其的私人投资产生了重大的负面影响。因此,我们的研究结果显示了宏观经济稳定对土耳其投资连续性的重要性。
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Macroeconomic uncertainty and investment relationship for Turkey
In the literature it is suggested that, in addition to many factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic polices, financial institutions and property rights; macroeconomic uncertainties are affecting the investment decisions. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of the real exchange rate, inflation and growth uncertainties on private investment in a developing country; Turkey. We used a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to measure uncertainties. Then, we investigated the longterm relationship of the variables using bound testing approach. Finally, we adopt an error correction model to capture the dynamic relationship. According to our results macroeconomic uncertainties have a significant negative effect on private investments in Turkey. Therefore, our findings showed the importance of the macroeconomic stability for the continuity of investments in Turkey.
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来源期刊
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊最新文献
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