2019冠状病毒病对叛乱和叛乱治理的影响:来自印度东北部的经验教训

IF 1.7 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Journal of Global Security Studies Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI:10.1093/jogss/ogad006
E. Newman, J. Saikia, A. Waterman
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引用次数: 1

摘要

新出现的研究表明,在国内冲突局势中,COVID-19大流行通常更有利于反叛组织,而不是国家。本文通过分析疫情对叛军活动三个方面的影响,即武装活动、民众支持和招募以及叛军治理,挑战了这一观点。它通过使用印度东北部长期叛乱的例证来证明这一点,这些叛乱的特点是叛乱长期处于弱势,如果有的话,领土控制也很少。文章发现,在2020年大流行的早期急性阶段,国家实施的封锁、叛乱分子自己的限制以及供应链的中断限制了叛乱活动的大多数方面。2021年限制的放松对不同武装团体产生了复杂和多方面的影响,而这些影响往往取决于武装团体的实力、战略、与国家的关系以及行动环境等原有立场。这些缺乏领土控制的低级别叛乱的经历为以下观点增加了重要的限制条件:叛乱分子天生就最善于利用流行病等随机冲击。除了印度东北部的案例之外,这些发现对反叛乱和叛军治理的分析也做出了一些贡献。
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Insurgency and Rebel Governance: Lessons from India's Northeast
Emerging research has suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic has generally favored rebel organizations—rather than states—in situations of intrastate conflict. This article challenges this perspective by analyzing the pandemic's impact on three dimensions of rebel activity—armed activity, popular support and recruitment, and rebel governance. It does so by using illustrative evidence from long-running insurgencies in Northeast India, characterized by long-term rebel weakness and minimal, if any, territorial control. The article finds that during the early, acute phase of the pandemic in 2020, state-imposed lockdowns, rebels’ own restrictions, and disruptions to supply chains constrained most dimensions of rebel activity. The easing of restrictions in 2021 revealed complex and multidimensional impacts on different armed groups, which often hinged on pre-existing positions such as armed group strength, strategy, relations with the state, and operational circumstances. These experiences of low-level insurgencies lacking territorial control add important qualifiers to the notion that rebels are inherently best placed to capitalize on stochastic shocks such as pandemics. Beyond the case of Northeast India, these findings make a number of contributions to the analysis of counterinsurgency and rebel governance.
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来源期刊
Journal of Global Security Studies
Journal of Global Security Studies INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
34
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