欧盟移民过程及其模拟研究的应用

IF 2.2 3区 工程技术 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.18254/s207751800018321-2
D. Evdokimov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

移民过程几乎在每个州都有发生,并且由于需要改变居住地的各种事件而得到促进。发达国家普遍面临着不受控制的移民涌入,而在较不发达国家,当地人口的外流导致社会经济状况急剧恶化。有几种类型的移民,所有这些都与许多因素密切相关-最明显的是:军事冲突,贫困,社会不平等,独裁政权,人口过剩。从2015年开始,这个问题在欧盟国家已经变得具有威胁性。中东局势的不稳定和交战各方的对抗导致当地人口大量外流到社会条件最有利、对移民支持最大的欧盟国家。移民的选择主要落在德国、奥地利、瑞典和意大利。这些过程已经变得难以控制。为了改善这种情况,必须发展新的机制来调节和稳定移徙进程,否则,不受控制的移徙可能会对欧洲联盟的社会经济制度造成更大的冲击,并形成更复杂的危机。在全球数字化的背景下,软件分析工具可以成为研究、分析和预测迁移过程的辅助手段。本文对欧洲国家移民的主要指标进行了统计分析,阐述了其发生的原因,并考虑了为研究与人口流动有关的各个方面而创建的模拟模型的例子。
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Migration Processes in the European Union and Application of Simulation to study them
Migration processes occur in virtually every state, and they are facilitated by various events that entail a change of residence. Developed countries generally face an uncontrolled influx of migrants, and in less developed countries, the outflow of the local population leads to a sharp deterioration in the socio-economic situation. There are several types of migration, all of which are closely related to many factors – the most obvious are: military conflicts, poverty, social inequality, dictatorial regime, overpopulation. From 2015 on, this problem in the EU countries has become threatening. The destabilization of the situation and the confrontation of the warring parties in the Middle East led to a massive outflow of the local population to the EU countries with the most favorable social conditions and maximum support for migrants. The choice of migrants fell mainly on Germany, Austria, Sweden, Italy. These processes have become difficult to control. To improve the situation, it is necessary to develop new mechanisms for regulating and stabilizing migration processes, otherwise, uncontrolled migration might lead to even greater shocks in the socio-economic system of the European Union and the formation of more complex crises. In the context of global digitalization, software analytical tools could become an auxiliary means for studying, analyzing and forecasting migration processes. This article provides a statistical analysis of the main indicators of migration to European countries, formulates the reasons for its occurrence, and considers examples of simulation models created to study various aspects related to population movements.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
9.50%
发文量
16
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation is an interdisciplinary journal for the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation. Since its first issue in 1998, it has been a world-wide leading reference for readers interested in social simulation and the application of computer simulation in the social sciences. Original research papers and critical reviews on all aspects of social simulation and agent societies that fall within the journal"s objective to further the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation are welcome.
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